Long-dated government bonds have come under pressure in recent months, at least on a relative basis. Sections of the financial media have interpreted this as evidence of an impending fiscal crisis and a resurgence of so-called bond market vigilantes seeking to impose fiscal discipline on governments. In this research note, we aim to separate signal […]
October 2025
Yes. Current market expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower its policy rate by roughly 150 basis points (bps) by the end of next year are overly optimistic. While we expect a 25-bp cut on September 17, we believe additional cuts through 2026 will be more gradual than markets anticipate, given persistent inflation and a […]
September 2025
No. US Treasury securities are likely to remain among the most effective diversifiers during periods of equity market stress. While US fiscal and policy concerns have contributed to recent volatility, the attractive attributes of US Treasury securities should sustain global demand and support their central role in multi-asset portfolios. However, no single asset is a […]
May 2025
The complexities of ever-changing markets present both challenges and opportunities for compounding wealth over time. Amid significant market volatility, investors should stay focused on sticking with their long-term strategy while looking for opportunities as they evolve. Shifting geopolitical alignments, the prospect of persistently high tariffs, rising sovereign debt in developed markets, and the end of […]
April 2025
No, we do not think the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the near term to rescue financial markets. However, if tariffs begin to significantly impact the real economy, the Fed will eventually act. The Fed faces a delicate balancing act: managing downside growth risks while addressing inflation pressures from tariffs. This dynamic will make […]
April 2025
We expect most major central banks to continue cutting policy rates, which should allow bonds to outperform cash. With breakeven inflation rates likely to be range bound, returns of inflation-linked and nominal bonds should be similar. Most Major Central Banks Should Continue Easing in 2025 Celia Dallas, Chief Investment Strategist Moderating inflation and near-trend economic […]
December 2024
Yes. Inflation-linked bonds, particularly US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), have become an attractive investment option, given elevated real yields and their unique diversifying characteristics. These bonds not only serve as a viable hedge against inflation but also enhance portfolio resilience in a variety of economic environments. These positive attributes make inflation-linked bonds a valuable component […]
July 2024
On June 6, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its main interest rates by 0.25%, becoming the first major developed markets (DM) central bank to cut rates. This follows recent decisions by central banks in Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland to reduce their policy rates, and it marks a change in the interest rate cycle that […]
June 2024
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