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VantagePoint: Building Resilient Public Equity Portfolios

While there has been much debate around whether active managers can outperform passive indexes overall, a more relevant question is whether investors should pursue active management in public, long-only equities at all. Despite the challenges, we believe active management, especially in less efficient markets, can be worthwhile if investors: 1) employ a rigorous manager research […]

May 2024

Are US Small Caps Poised to Outperform?

Yes. We believe higher-quality US small-cap companies trade at a significant discount to large-cap peers, and their balance sheets have held up better than headlines suggest. Recent earnings for small-cap companies have disappointed, but we see this as more driven by sector and cyclical effects that should ease over the next 12 to 18 months […]

May 2024

Private Credit Markets Are Growing in Size and Opportunity

For many investors, 2024 started where last year left off. Hopes of an economic soft landing are growing, inflation is slowly receding, and last year’s winners (e.g., mega-cap growth stocks) continue to rip higher. Credit markets have seen more muted gains after a gangbuster fourth quarter 2023, but strong demand and rising confidence mean issuance […]

April 2024

Should Investors Consider Allocating to US Commercial Real Estate Debt?

Yes. A record of roughly $925 billion of US commercial real estate (CRE) debt is maturing in 2024 and refinancing needs in future years are also significant. Some of these loans will be extended, but most will need to be refinanced; simultaneously, many traditional lenders are pulling back. The resulting rise in spreads, combined with […]

April 2024

Have Public Market Returns Permanently Eclipsed Private Market Returns?

No, while the public market’s outperformance may seem like a total eclipse, this one, like all eclipses, will be temporary. At present, short-term private equity returns do not compare favorably to those of public benchmarks. For the nine months ended September 30, 2023, global private equity and global venture capital underperformed the MSCI ACWI on […]

April 2024

Has the Euro Area’s Economy Bottomed?

Yes, we believe that the euro area’s economy bottomed either in fourth quarter 2023 or first quarter 2024. The abatement of headwinds that saw GDP flatline during 2023 should allow for some expansion in 2024. Nonetheless, the growth impulse is likely to remain muted and growth should underperform the United States. Therefore, despite comparatively subdued […]

April 2024

Should Investors Chase the Bitcoin and Gold Rallies?

No. While recent developments may be a sign that bitcoin is gaining credibility, it remains a highly speculative investment that offers no cash flows. Gold—a more stable and defensive option than bitcoin—also offers no yield. Investors looking for portfolio defense should look to long US Treasury securities, which offer reasonable yields and protection in a […]

March 2024

Can US Equity Dominance Be Sustained?

No, we anticipate performance will broaden out beyond mega-cap tech stocks, which have driven US equity performance in recent years. Tech giants are vulnerable to disappointment by the elevated expectations reflected in valuations. Even well-run tech giants that continue to dominate their sectors and maintain high profitability may not deliver strong returns if their stock […]

March 2024

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