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Should Credit Investors Expect More Negative Headlines in the Months Ahead?

Yes. The combination of rising interest rates and a deteriorating earnings outlook is likely to generate ample negative headlines about credit in the months ahead. Rating agency downgrades will accelerate and defaults will rise. The flipside is that some of this is already in the price and many borrowers are prepared for these headwinds. Investors […]

November 2022

Quantitative Tightening Raises the Risks for Markets

With inflation running at multi-decade highs, monetary policymakers are united in one of the most aggressive tightening campaigns in decades. Most central banks have already significantly increased policy rates this year, and some are unwinding their massive balance sheets, also known as quantitative tightening (QT). From what we know about QT, we expect it to […]

November 2022

VantagePoint: Three Big Questions

Policymakers are in a tough spot. One doesn’t need to look further than the United Kingdom to see their challenges. High inflation and slowing growth have pitted central banks against politicians seeking to stimulate. As a result, capital markets of all sorts—risky and defensive—have corrected sharply. Much bad news has been discounted, but is it […]

November 2022

Has the Attractiveness of Gilts Improved for UK Investors?

Yes. We believe the attractiveness of UK government bonds has improved relative to just a month ago. The concern for many is that the disorderly market volatility that required the Bank of England (BOE) to intervene last week indicates that the risk of these investments may be higher than usual. While we share this concern, […]

October 2022

Asia Insights: Playing Defense

Introduction Aaron Costello, Regional Head for Asia, and Vivian Gan, Senior Investment Associate, Capital Markets Research Asian markets have had a difficult year so far due to headwinds from slowing global growth and higher inflation. Asian equities and yield-sensitive assets have sold off alongside their global counterparts amid heightened volatility and rising interest rates. Ongoing […]

September 2022

Can the Strong US Dollar Environment Persist?

Yes. The hawkish Federal Reserve and energy market challenges have contributed to a strengthening of the US dollar in recent quarters, and we expect that trends in both factors may continue to be supportive of the dollar in the short term. Nonetheless, on a longer horizon, historical precedents suggest that the dollar is approaching the […]

September 2022

Fed Hikes Another 0.75% and Signals More Tightening to Come

The Federal Reserve announced its third consecutive interest rate increase of 75 basis points (bps) on September 22, bringing the Fed funds target range to 3.00%–3.25%. Policymakers’ median estimate of the terminal Fed funds rate also increased sharply from 3.8% to 4.6%. Taken together, these two changes highlight the Fed’s concerns about inflation and their […]

September 2022