The Economy, Not Kevin Warsh, Will Drive Fed Policy

Kevin Warsh became chair of the Federal Reserve on May 15 after Senate confirmation earlier this week, succeeding Jerome Powell at a politically sensitive moment for the central bank. A former Fed governor, Warsh brings stronger market credibility than some other candidates considered for the role, but his ties to President Donald Trump have raised […]

May 2026

UK Political Turmoil Adds Noise, But Gilts Will Remain Driven By Broader Macro Forces

Large losses in last weekend’s local elections have increased pressure on Labour Party leader and Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Frustration was already building within the Labour Party over the lack of visible progress on key priorities, compounded by weak approval ratings. The local election results brought this dissatisfaction with leadership to a head. As a […]

May 2026

US Private Families Should Revisit How Munis Fit Within a Broader Diversification Strategy

Many US private families reduced US tax-exempt municipal bond (muni) exposure in recent years as low yields, poor performance, and elevated volatility weakened the case for tax-exempt fixed income. That rationale now looks much less compelling. With yields higher and a more meaningful tax advantage of munis, tax-exempt bonds should play a larger role in […]

April 2026

Will the Iran War Force the ECB and BOE to Tighten as Much as Markets Expect?

No, we do not think so. While the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to the Iran-driven energy shock, we believe markets are overpricing the amount of tightening that will ultimately be delivered, with more than 3 hikes priced for the euro area and […]

April 2026

Japanese Election Result Should Boost the Economy and Ultimately the Japanese Yen

Sunday’s decisive electoral victory for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan’s Lower House elections led to a more than 2% rally in Japanese equities today, driven by expectations of fiscal stimulus. Meanwhile, Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and the Japanese yen (JPY) remained largely unchanged, as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi reaffirmed a commitment to support […]

February 2026

2026 Outlook: Fixed Income Views

Investors should maintain exposure to high-quality sovereigns and avoid duration bets in 2026 by TJ Scavone Yields on most major developed market (DM) sovereign bonds reached a multi-year high in 2023 and have since held just below those highs, trading in a relatively narrow range. We expect this pattern to persist into 2026, supported by […]

December 2025

Long Bond Performance Does Not Signify an Impending Debt Crisis

Long-dated government bonds have come under pressure in recent months, at least on a relative basis. Sections of the financial media have interpreted this as evidence of an impending fiscal crisis and a resurgence of so-called bond market vigilantes seeking to impose fiscal discipline on governments. In this research note, we aim to separate signal […]

October 2025

Is the Projected Path of Fed Easing Too Aggressive?

Yes. Current market expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower its policy rate by roughly 150 basis points (bps) by the end of next year are overly optimistic. While we expect a 25-bp cut on September 17, we believe additional cuts through 2026 will be more gradual than markets anticipate, given persistent inflation and a […]

September 2025