Do Fiscal Concerns Undermine the Role of US Treasury Securities as Core Portfolio Diversifiers?

No. US Treasury securities are likely to remain among the most effective diversifiers during periods of equity market stress. While US fiscal and policy concerns have contributed to recent volatility, the attractive attributes of US Treasury securities should sustain global demand and support their central role in multi-asset portfolios. However, no single asset is a […]

May 2025

VantagePoint: Strategic Portfolio Construction in a Changing World

The complexities of ever-changing markets present both challenges and opportunities for compounding wealth over time. Amid significant market volatility, investors should stay focused on sticking with their long-term strategy while looking for opportunities as they evolve. Shifting geopolitical alignments, the prospect of persistently high tariffs, rising sovereign debt in developed markets, and the end of […]

April 2025

Will the Fed Cut Rates to Rescue Financial Markets?

No, we do not think the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the near term to rescue financial markets. However, if tariffs begin to significantly impact the real economy, the Fed will eventually act. The Fed faces a delicate balancing act: managing downside growth risks while addressing inflation pressures from tariffs. This dynamic will make […]

April 2025

2025 Outlook: Interest Rates

We expect most major central banks to continue cutting policy rates, which should allow bonds to outperform cash. With breakeven inflation rates likely to be range bound, returns of inflation-linked and nominal bonds should be similar. Most Major Central Banks Should Continue Easing in 2025 Celia Dallas, Chief Investment Strategist Moderating inflation and near-trend economic […]

December 2024

Are Inflation-Linked Bonds Attractive?

Yes. Inflation-linked bonds, particularly US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), have become an attractive investment option, given elevated real yields and their unique diversifying characteristics. These bonds not only serve as a viable hedge against inflation but also enhance portfolio resilience in a variety of economic environments. These positive attributes make inflation-linked bonds a valuable component […]

July 2024

European Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates by 0.25%

On June 6, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its main interest rates by 0.25%, becoming the first major developed markets (DM) central bank to cut rates. This follows recent decisions by central banks in Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland to reduce their policy rates, and it marks a change in the interest rate cycle that […]

June 2024

Private Credit Strategies: An Introduction

Private credit offers distinct advantages and appeal in a low return environment, but investors should be aware that behind the name is a diverse array of strategies, some more familiar to institutional investors than others, each with idiosyncratic risks. In this report, we describe the broad array of private credit strategies and position them along the risk/return spectrum, review the investment process, discuss expectations for the performance of these strategies in various parts of the economic cycle, and highlight some key risks for investors to consider.

May 2024

Should Investors Chase the Bitcoin and Gold Rallies?

No. While recent developments may be a sign that bitcoin is gaining credibility, it remains a highly speculative investment that offers no cash flows. Gold—a more stable and defensive option than bitcoin—also offers no yield. Investors looking for portfolio defense should look to long US Treasury securities, which offer reasonable yields and protection in a […]

March 2024