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Will Monetary Policy Become Less of a Headwind for Markets in 2023?

Yes. Markets will be less vulnerable to rising rate risk next year, as the aggressive tightening that has weighed on markets for much of 2022 has moderated more recently since inflation has slowed. However, we see a pause in tightening as more likely than a pivot to easing in 2023 because inflation will be slow […]

December 2022

2023 Outlook: Interest Rates

We expect interest rates will increase in many developed markets, as implied by market pricing. But we think the Fed will hold rates in restrictive territory for longer than expected. We don’t believe any increases will prompt another European sovereign debt crisis. US Federal Reserve Pauses, but Does Not Pivot in 2023 Celia Dallas, Chief […]

December 2022

Do Municipal Bonds Still Have a Role to Play in Taxable Portfolios?

Yes. Munis still have value on an after-tax basis over the long term, and their near-term outlook has improved following the rise in yields and spreads during this year’s sell-off. Still, the economic and policy backdrop remains challenging. Thus, we believe it is reasonable for most taxable investors to hold a reduced portion of their […]

August 2022

Credit Investors Should Proceed Cautiously

Credit assets have sold off in recent weeks in unison with other risk assets, as market concern has shifted from one extreme of growth and inflation running too hot to another of stagflation, or even outright recession. Despite the improvement in credit pricing, we believe investors should be patient when adding to high-beta credit portfolios. […]

May 2022

Government Bond Yields Are Likely to Rise as Central Banks Remove Support

Long-dated government bond yields rose in 2021 on strong economic growth and surging inflation. Central banks have maintained their easy money policies despite the rapid recovery in economic conditions, likely keeping yields lower than they would have been otherwise. This may soon change now that several major central banks are starting the process of dialing back support.

December 2021

Rising Rates and the Implications for Fixed Income

In this paper, we analyze the drivers behind the recent rise in yields and compare the current bond sell-off to major bond sell-offs of the past to assess whether the rise in yields can continue and the implications for fixed income.

May 2021

Playing Defense in a Low-Rate Environment

Investors have predominantly relied on developed markets sovereign bonds for defense in balanced portfolios, but low rates have diminished their diversification characteristics.

January 2021