This year’s returns have been driven more by what has not gone wrong than what has gone right. Slowing economic growth and lackluster earnings have not shifted investors’ focus from dovish central banks and a slight easing of geopolitical risks. It is an open question whether investors will remain so sanguine in 2020. Our Outlook 2020 highlights ten themes for the coming year, with a focus on key macro questions, emerging opportunities, and risks.
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It has been a challenging time for hedge funds in recent years. Loose monetary policy has driven equity markets upwards and hurt short books. The growth of quantitatively traded funds has eroded some of the inefficiencies commonly exploited by hedge funds. This fact, coupled with the shift toward low-fee passive and alternative risk premia (ARP) products, has raised questions about the merits of hedge funds in investor portfolios. In this paper, we focus on comparing ARP versus hedge funds and investigate whether hedge funds and ARP funds are complementary or whether ARP funds are actually a viable replacement for hedge funds.
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Families of wealth face three key questions about intergenerational wealth planning: how best to invest to sustain future generations; how best to engage the next generation; and how best to ensure family unity endures. Often each question is addressed independently. We find that a conversation across generations about the impact of a meaningful venture capital allocation can help address all three questions in an integrated manner.
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The start of a new year and a new decade is an opportune time to reflect on megatrends that will be consequential over the next ten years. In this edition of VantagePoint, we focus on three such trends and their investment implications: disruption, demographics, and decoupling.
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We are investors, not scientists; however, investors would be wise to consider climate science in their investment decision-making process. Climate risk is likely underestimated by financial…
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As sponsors of US single-employer defined benefit plans know all too well, interest rates have experienced dramatic swings in recent years. While many plan sponsors have adapted to this environment by strategically hedging their liability interest rate risk, many are still questioning the efficacy of doing so — especially when interest rates appear to be low. Yet, failing to hedge long-duration liabilities with long-duration assets is a risky endeavor that exposes the plan sponsor to significant downside risk.
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A universal approach to portfolio construction can help schemes achieve required return targets whilst adding additional upside from alpha generation; reduce risk through true diversification; and generate sufficient income to comfortably meet both planned and unplanned cashflow needs.
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As economic growth slows, manufacturing contracts, and major central banks start to ease monetary policy anew, investors need to consider what policy options the world has left in the event this slowdown becomes a recession. In this edition of VantagePoint, we look to the 1930s for some answers, while realizing that intervening changes to the global financial system rule out an exact repeat of that period.
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Elevated equity market valuations and potentially rising bond yields suggest the return environment for traditional risk assets could be difficult. Faced with this challenge, institutional…
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