The US dollar tends to appreciate during two broad economic regimes. One is when the US economy is materially outperforming its global counterparts, attracting capital looking to benefit from the superior US prospects. The other is when growth slows sharply, attracting safe-haven-seeking capital. This is the “dollar smile” model of the currency, and looking at 2022 through this lens suggests some dollar strength may be in store.
December 2021
Long-dated government bond yields rose in 2021 on strong economic growth and surging inflation. Central banks have maintained their easy money policies despite the rapid recovery in economic conditions, likely keeping yields lower than they would have been otherwise. This may soon change now that several major central banks are starting the process of dialing back support.
December 2021
Consumer price inflation is above pre-pandemic trend in the United States and Europe, while producer prices are surging seemingly everywhere. Consistent with consensus forecasts, we expect mounting inflation pressures to ease by second half 2022 as demand for goods abates and supply constraints moderate.
December 2021
No. While inflation could continue to run hotter than central banks expect, the US employment situation is improving, and economic growth is unlikely to stagnate.
November 2021
Yes. In recent weeks, several Chinese property developers have defaulted, and spreads on Chinese high-yield bonds have widened roughly 600 basis points (bps), taking their year-to-date loss to 18%.
October 2021
As the second largest economy in the world, China remains an important destination for global investor capital. Yet, the pace and scope of China’s regulatory crackdown are causing concern. In this edition of VantagePoint, we review the nature of regulatory developments and their impact on the investment opportunity set. We believe that dedicated, strategic allocations to Chinese assets are still warranted. Investors should carefully consider their sector exposure and evaluate managers’ capabilities in the current regulatory and geopolitical environment.
October 2021
Fears that a default by China Evergrande Group could trigger a financial crisis has led to some weakness in global equities in recent days, with the MSCI All Country World Index falling 3.5% from its peak. While Evergrande is likely to default and require a major restructuring, we view fears of a broader financial crisis as overblown.
September 2021
The style bias of actively managed growth and value equity portfolios is not typically static. In this paper, we highlight how the strength of active managers’ style signatures have moved between value and growth and propose a simple fundamental rationale for why this happens.
September 2021