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VantagePoint: Can US Equity Dominance Be Sustained?

Since 2010, US equities have been unstoppable, outperforming developed markets equities outside the United States (DM ex US) by a whopping 5.5 percentage points (ppts) annually, with few periods of short-lived, intermittent underperformance. Recently, this outperformance has been led by a small set of US tech giants. In this edition of VantagePoint, we review the […]

February 2024

Are Emerging Markets Equities Finally Set to Outperform, Given Expectations for Federal Reserve Rate Cuts This Year?

No. Although emerging markets (EM) stocks typically outperform after the onset of Federal Reserve easing, we suspect this episode will be different. The growing chance of a US soft landing—coupled with sluggish growth expectations globally—suggest that cuts could be modest and that the US dollar will hold its value. These conditions do not meaningfully shift […]

February 2024

The United Kingdom and Japan Entered Technical Recessions in Q4

UK GDP fell by more than expected in fourth quarter 2023, according to new data released on February 15, 2024, which pushed the country into a technical recession. It joined fellow G7 economy, Japan, which had earlier undershot expectations and delivered a second consecutive quarter of negative growth. Despite contrasting fortunes in UK and Japanese […]

February 2024

Will There be a Second Wave of Inflation?

No, we expect Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will continue to moderate toward central bank target levels in 2024. As a result, we believe key central banks will cut policy rates modestly this year to avoid overtightening. This should support our view that investors should hold a modest overweight to long Treasury bonds. Global inflation […]

February 2024

SEC Approves Spot Bitcoin ETFs

On January 10, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the trading of spot bitcoin ETFs, roughly ten years after the first application. The approval follows last year’s decision by a US Appeals Court that limited the SEC’s discretion in denying applications. While we doubt this decision will meaningfully impact sophisticated investors in the […]

January 2024

2024 Outlook

The Cambridge Associates 2024 Outlook features our investment outlook for 2024, separated into eight key investment themes.  

December 2023

2024 Outlook: Public Equities

We expect global equity performance will be below its long-term median level, but we believe investors should hold equity allocations in line with policy targets. Within equities, we see opportunities in developed value, developed small caps, and China. We doubt European and emerging markets ex China equities will outperform, and we believe the share of […]

December 2023

2024 Outlook: Interest Rates

We expect that most major central banks will cut policy rates modestly due to our view that inflation rates will continue to decline. The modest cuts will shift policy rates from restrictive levels closer to neutral levels, which are neither restrictive nor accommodative. Given this view and our view that economic activity will weaken, we […]

December 2023

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