When investors doubt prevailing narratives, volatility tends to increase, with pricey and leveraged markets most at risk. This was the setting in July and early August as cracks formed in the narratives around artificial intelligence (AI) growth and an economic soft landing. The loss in faith amid high valuations amplified the decline as the Japanese […]
September 2024
No, Federal Reserve rate cuts alone are unlikely to trigger sustained outperformance for Chinese equities. While the start of Fed rate cuts may help support the RMB and allow the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to modestly ease monetary policy, it is unlikely to reaccelerate China’s economy and ease current deflationary pressures, both of which […]
August 2024
Yes. Emerging markets (EM) equities provide a fitting reminder that relative performance among asset classes varies over time, suggesting that investors maintain well-diversified portfolios to weather shifts in performance cycles. Neither the widespread underperformance of EM equities since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)—nor a sustained period of EM outperformance—are without precedent. We are neutral on […]
August 2024
No, not right now. We continue to believe investors should: (1) keep equity allocations aligned with broad policy targets; (2) maintain modest overweights in less expensive areas within equities, such as developed markets value and small caps; and (3) maintain a modest overweight in long US Treasury securities within bond portfolios. The potential for continued […]
August 2024
Yes. Inflation-linked bonds, particularly US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), have become an attractive investment option, given elevated real yields and their unique diversifying characteristics. These bonds not only serve as a viable hedge against inflation but also enhance portfolio resilience in a variety of economic environments. These positive attributes make inflation-linked bonds a valuable component […]
July 2024
The Labour Party secured a sweeping victory in the UK general election, returning them to power for the first time since 2010. Although Labour’s share of the vote increased only slightly since 2019 to 34%, the Conservative’s loss of votes to Reform allowed Labour to win 412 of the country’s 650-seat parliament. Even so, we […]
July 2024
Yes. We believe co-investments are an attractive opportunity in the current market for three primary reasons. First, the challenging fundraising environment has increased the incentive for general partners (GPs) to offer co-investments. Second, in a slow-paced environment, the ability to control capital deployment is increasingly valuable for limited partners (LPs). Third, a co-investment offered today […]
June 2024
Yes, we believe it will. Excitement around artificial intelligence (AI) and its related technological advancements has been a key market driver since early 2023. Investors are rightly enthusiastic about the potential for AI to support labor productivity and growth. We share this enthusiasm, while acknowledging the uncertainty in quantifying these benefits. Despite AI’s long-run promise, […]
June 2024