No, we do not think the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the near term to rescue financial markets. However, if tariffs begin to significantly impact the real economy, the Fed will eventually act. The Fed faces a delicate balancing act: managing downside growth risks while addressing inflation pressures from tariffs. This dynamic will make […]
April 2025
Global equities tumbled nearly 8% last week following the announcement of US tariffs on April 2, with the rout continuing into Monday, April 7. Key Asian markets have declined 3%–13% on Monday, partly reflecting the delayed reaction from markets that were closed on Friday, while US and European markets experienced wild swings after opening sharply […]
April 2025
Yesterday (April 2), US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs targeting nearly all US trading partners. The policy includes a 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods and country-specific “reciprocal” tariffs of up to 50% that target nations with perceived unfair trade barriers against US products. Key trading partners such as the EU, Japan, […]
April 2025
Yes, in response to weak growth and a changing defence landscape, taking off the fiscal straitjacket should catalyse a more growth-supportive economic environment within Europe. There will be a direct growth impact as increased government investment is disbursed, some crowding in of private-sector investment, and the potential for further positive growth benefits from subsequent institutional […]
March 2025
Over the last few decades, many not-for-profit healthcare systems have enjoyed strong margins driven by favorable demographic trends, inexpensive debt, and improved cost structures through mergers & acquisitions. As a result, many of those systems have been able to amass significant investable reserves. However, in many cases the purpose of the investment portfolio is often […]
March 2025
No, investors should hold equity allocations in line with their policy portfolio weights. Trade policy uncertainty has forced many investors to reassess the trajectory of global economic growth, sending ripples through markets, and prompting US equities to enter a “correction” on March 13. Still, there are strong arguments for holding equity allocations steady. For instance, […]
March 2025
Independence Day, 1985. You just saw Back to the Future and can’t stop thinking about tomorrow—in particular, your retirement years. You imagine sitting beachside or traveling through Europe, confident that your company’s well-funded defined benefit (DB) plan will provide steady monthly income for life. But things are about to change for the generation behind you. […]
February 2025
No. In President Trump’s first week back in office, he issued several executive orders related to climate and energy. These initial actions aim to reverse President Biden’s climate policies by withdrawing the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement (for the second time), curtailing growth of the clean energy sector, and boosting US fossil fuel […]
January 2025