Global inflation has been higher and more persistent than most economists anticipated. Some inflationary pressures related to the pandemic have started to show signs of easing, but new pressures related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and lockdowns associated with China’s “zero-COVID” policy create new challenges. At the same time, central banks have declared war on […]
May 2022
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced it would raise the target range for the Fed funds rate 50 basis points (bps) to 0.75%–1.00%. It also formalized plans to reduce its $9 trillion balance sheet starting June 1, with an initial monthly cap of $47.5 billion, rising to $95 billion per month on September 1. At that […]
May 2022
Pensions may be missing out on a technological disruption that could represent the most profound new development in the digital economy since its start in the late 1990s. To date, they have lagged other institutional investors in the digital assets space. Barring a few well-publicized exceptions, investments by pensions into digital assets on the blockchain […]
May 2022
No, we don’t think so. While bitcoin and gold share some qualities, these two assets are different and should not be viewed as interchangeable in investment portfolios. Bitcoin is much more volatile than gold and has recently been trading more like a pro-risk asset, suffering significant drawdowns during periods of market turmoil. Bitcoin is often […]
February 2022
The US dollar tends to appreciate during two broad economic regimes. One is when the US economy is materially outperforming its global counterparts, attracting capital looking to benefit from the superior US prospects. The other is when growth slows sharply, attracting safe-haven-seeking capital. This is the “dollar smile” model of the currency, and looking at 2022 through this lens suggests some dollar strength may be in store.
December 2021
No. While inflation could continue to run hotter than central banks expect, the US employment situation is improving, and economic growth is unlikely to stagnate.
November 2021
No, we do not think Federal Reserve rate cuts signal a major downturn in the US dollar.
August 2019
The dramatic declines that swept across the crypto space raised questions about the future of these assets and the blockchain technology that underpins them. Yet, in looking across the investment landscape, we see an industry that is developing, not faltering. In this paper, we review recent developments in the industry, highlight our views of the various investment strategies, and discuss a few considerations for investors exploring the space.
February 2019
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