We expect most liquid credits will generate higher returns in 2023 relative to 2022, given the better yields on offer. We also see private credit as offering opportunities, particularly in secondary trading. Liquid Credit Markets Should Generate Higher Returns in 2023 Wade O’Brien, Managing Director, Capital Markets Research Many high-yield (HY) borrowers are prepared for […]
December 2022
We expect the cyclical backdrop to impact private equity and venture capital returns, ultimately influencing recently invested vintages the most. That said, we think the 2023 vintage could perform well. Private Equity Will Sail in Stormy Seas in 2023 Keirsten Lawton, Co-Head of US Private Equity Research, and Caryn Slotsky, Senior Investment Director, Private Investment […]
December 2022
We expect macro hedge funds to perform well, given our expectations that market volatilities will remain elevated and our view that inflation risks are skewed to exceeding expectations. We expect long/short managers will benefit from positive short rebates. Continued Inflation Uncertainties Underpin Our Optimism in Macro Hedge Funds in 2023 Meisan Lim, Managing Director, Hedge […]
December 2022
We expect energy equities will be resilient due to underinvestment in recent years. So, we don’t think investors should underweight this economic sector in the near term despite some long-term headwinds from decarbonization efforts. In real estate, we think offices may finally offer some attractive opportunities for the discerning investor. Energy Equities at Benchmark Weights […]
December 2022
We expect the US dollar to remain firm but with limited appreciation relative to 2022, given our view that it is near the end of its incredible multi-year run. We believe gold’s performance will improve and digital assets, in general, will not surpass prior highs, many of which were set in 2021. 2023 Will Not […]
December 2022
Yes. The combination of rising interest rates and a deteriorating earnings outlook is likely to generate ample negative headlines about credit in the months ahead. Rating agency downgrades will accelerate and defaults will rise. The flipside is that some of this is already in the price and many borrowers are prepared for these headwinds. Investors […]
November 2022
With inflation running at multi-decade highs, monetary policymakers are united in one of the most aggressive tightening campaigns in decades. Most central banks have already significantly increased policy rates this year, and some are unwinding their massive balance sheets, also known as quantitative tightening (QT). From what we know about QT, we expect it to […]
November 2022
Policymakers are in a tough spot. One doesn’t need to look further than the United Kingdom to see their challenges. High inflation and slowing growth have pitted central banks against politicians seeking to stimulate. As a result, capital markets of all sorts—risky and defensive—have corrected sharply. Much bad news has been discounted, but is it […]
November 2022