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Buying India's Growth Story, But Not Today

India has garnered significant investor attention, given its recent economic and stock market outperformance, its large and growing population, and its rapid ascent as a manufacturing alternative to China. But should investors buy the hype surrounding Indian equities? We think India’s bright economic prospects have the potential to drive strong equity market returns in the […]

May 2023

VantagePoint: Banking Crisis Implications for Asset Allocation

More than a month has passed since Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank failed, kicking off ripples of concerns across much of the globe. To look at the performance of risk assets, you would never know what transpired, with global equities returning 2.4% during March and 7% in the first quarter in local currency […]

April 2023

Asia Insights: Navigating Higher Rates and Volatility

Introduction Aaron Costello, Regional Head for Asia, and Vivian Gan, Associate Investment Director, Capital Markets Research The path of global central bank tightening remains a top-of-mind question for investors after the recent stress in the US and European banking sectors. While financial contagion seems contained for now and has yet to spread to Asia, the […]

April 2023

Should Investors Lean Into Quality Equities?

Yes. Aggressive central bank tightening has caused economic growth to slow in Europe and the United States, and we expect that the recent banking sector stress will further weaken economic growth. Now is the time for investors to tactically overweight quality equities, given this style has tended to outperform broad equities during periods of economic […]

April 2023

Investors Should Direct Their Attention to Private Lending

We believe now is an opportune time to allocate to direct lending. Dislocation in the public leveraged finance markets has allowed direct lenders to increase credit spreads and tighten terms. This, coupled with higher interest rates, means that first-lien senior-secured debt is now yielding low double digits. Recent turmoil in the banking sector may only […]

March 2023

European Bank Stress Adds to Economic Growth Challenges

On 20 March, investors awoke to news Swiss authorities had used emergency measures to push through a hastily arranged merger of Credit Suisse and UBS. Following two recent bank failures in the United States, the announcement raised questions over the health of European banks and the broader economy. While market pressure on another European financial […]

March 2023

The End of the Fed's Tightening Cycle Nears

Today, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds target range by 25 basis points (bps), to 4.75%–5.00%, as expected, and signaled it expects at least another 25 bps of additional rate hikes will be necessary to bring down inflation. This announcement and the recent turmoil in the banking sector increase our confidence that the Fed […]

March 2023

Has Our Broad Investment Outlook Changed Considering the Recent Bank Collapses?

No. We continue to think investors should tightly manage risk by keeping equity allocations and bond duration in line with broad policy targets and resist the temptation to time the market. We entered the year with those views, which depended on our expectation that recessions in the United States and euro area were likely, given […]

March 2023

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