Have Public Market Returns Permanently Eclipsed Private Market Returns?

No, while the public market’s outperformance may seem like a total eclipse, this one, like all eclipses, will be temporary. At present, short-term private equity returns do not compare favorably to those of public benchmarks. For the nine months ended September 30, 2023, global private equity and global venture capital underperformed the MSCI ACWI on […]

April 2024

Has the Euro Area’s Economy Bottomed?

Yes, we believe that the euro area’s economy bottomed either in fourth quarter 2023 or first quarter 2024. The abatement of headwinds that saw GDP flatline during 2023 should allow for some expansion in 2024. Nonetheless, the growth impulse is likely to remain muted and growth should underperform the United States. Therefore, despite comparatively subdued […]

April 2024

Can US Equity Dominance Be Sustained?

No, we anticipate performance will broaden out beyond mega-cap tech stocks, which have driven US equity performance in recent years. Tech giants are vulnerable to disappointment by the elevated expectations reflected in valuations. Even well-run tech giants that continue to dominate their sectors and maintain high profitability may not deliver strong returns if their stock […]

March 2024

VantagePoint: Can US Equity Dominance Be Sustained?

Since 2010, US equities have been unstoppable, outperforming developed markets equities outside the United States (DM ex US) by a whopping 5.5 percentage points (ppts) annually, with few periods of short-lived, intermittent underperformance. Recently, this outperformance has been led by a small set of US tech giants. In this edition of VantagePoint, we review the […]

February 2024

Are Emerging Markets Equities Finally Set to Outperform, Given Expectations for Federal Reserve Rate Cuts This Year?

No. Although emerging markets (EM) stocks typically outperform after the onset of Federal Reserve easing, we suspect this episode will be different. The growing chance of a US soft landing—coupled with sluggish growth expectations globally—suggest that cuts could be modest and that the US dollar will hold its value. These conditions do not meaningfully shift […]

February 2024

The United Kingdom and Japan Entered Technical Recessions in Q4

UK GDP fell by more than expected in fourth quarter 2023, according to new data released on February 15, 2024, which pushed the country into a technical recession. It joined fellow G7 economy, Japan, which had earlier undershot expectations and delivered a second consecutive quarter of negative growth. Despite contrasting fortunes in UK and Japanese […]

February 2024

2024 Outlook: Public Equities

We expect global equity performance will be below its long-term median level, but we believe investors should hold equity allocations in line with policy targets. Within equities, we see opportunities in developed value, developed small caps, and China. We doubt European and emerging markets ex China equities will outperform, and we believe the share of […]

December 2023

Do Shifting US-China Geopolitics Create Investment Opportunities Elsewhere in Asia?

Yes, US-China geopolitical realities are already having an impact on trade and investment flows within Asia. China will remain an important destination for investor capital, but the shift in capital flows, alongside positive domestic structural developments in other parts of Asia, create investment opportunities beyond China that deserve a closer look. Trade and financial “decoupling” […]

November 2023