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VantagePoint: Can US Equity Dominance Be Sustained?

Since 2010, US equities have been unstoppable, outperforming developed markets equities outside the United States (DM ex US) by a whopping 5.5 percentage points (ppts) annually, with few periods of short-lived, intermittent underperformance. Recently, this outperformance has been led by a small set of US tech giants. In this edition of VantagePoint, we review the […]

February 2024

Are Emerging Markets Equities Finally Set to Outperform, Given Expectations for Federal Reserve Rate Cuts This Year?

No. Although emerging markets (EM) stocks typically outperform after the onset of Federal Reserve easing, we suspect this episode will be different. The growing chance of a US soft landing—coupled with sluggish growth expectations globally—suggest that cuts could be modest and that the US dollar will hold its value. These conditions do not meaningfully shift […]

February 2024

The United Kingdom and Japan Entered Technical Recessions in Q4

UK GDP fell by more than expected in fourth quarter 2023, according to new data released on February 15, 2024, which pushed the country into a technical recession. It joined fellow G7 economy, Japan, which had earlier undershot expectations and delivered a second consecutive quarter of negative growth. Despite contrasting fortunes in UK and Japanese […]

February 2024

2024 Outlook: Public Equities

We expect global equity performance will be below its long-term median level, but we believe investors should hold equity allocations in line with policy targets. Within equities, we see opportunities in developed value, developed small caps, and China. We doubt European and emerging markets ex China equities will outperform, and we believe the share of […]

December 2023

Do Shifting US-China Geopolitics Create Investment Opportunities Elsewhere in Asia?

Yes, US-China geopolitical realities are already having an impact on trade and investment flows within Asia. China will remain an important destination for investor capital, but the shift in capital flows, alongside positive domestic structural developments in other parts of Asia, create investment opportunities beyond China that deserve a closer look. Trade and financial “decoupling” […]

November 2023

VantagePoint: Asia Opportunities Amid Shifting Geopolitics – Part II

The shifting geopolitical realities between the United States and China have already impacted trade and investment flows. In this two-part series of VantagePoint, we review this reality and consider investment implications alongside those of other key factors—such as domestic structural developments, macroeconomic conditions, and valuations. In Part I, we focused on opportunities in China specifically. […]

November 2023

VantagePoint: Asia Opportunities Amid Shifting Geopolitics – Part I

The shifting geopolitical realities between the United States and China have already impacted trade and investment flows. In this two-part series of VantagePoint, we review this reality and consider investment implications alongside those of other key factors—such as domestic structural developments, macroeconomic conditions, and valuations. In Part I, we focus on opportunities in China specifically, […]

October 2023

Do Recent Upward Revisions to the United Kingdom's GDP Mean the Outlook Is Brighter?

No. Although GDP revisions showing that the UK economy recovered more quickly and strongly from the COVID-19 period than was initially thought are welcome, the country faces headwinds to growth in the coming quarters. We continue to recommend holding UK equities at benchmark weights. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently released revisions to historical […]

September 2023

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