Buying India’s Growth Story, But Not Today

India has garnered significant investor attention, given its recent economic and stock market outperformance, its large and growing population, and its rapid ascent as a manufacturing alternative to China. But should investors buy the hype surrounding Indian equities? We think India’s bright economic prospects have the potential to drive strong equity market returns in the […]

May 2023

Asia Insights: Navigating Higher Rates and Volatility

Introduction Aaron Costello, Regional Head for Asia, and Vivian Gan, Associate Investment Director, Capital Markets Research The path of global central bank tightening remains a top-of-mind question for investors after the recent stress in the US and European banking sectors. While financial contagion seems contained for now and has yet to spread to Asia, the […]

April 2023

Should Investors Lean Into Quality Equities?

Yes. Aggressive central bank tightening has caused economic growth to slow in Europe and the United States, and we expect that the recent banking sector stress will further weaken economic growth. Now is the time for investors to tactically overweight quality equities, given this style has tended to outperform broad equities during periods of economic […]

April 2023

Will the Outperformance of Eurozone Equities Persist?

No, while the recent outperformance and positivity surrounding Eurozone equities was justified by shifts in the macroeconomic landscape, we do not have confidence that outperformance will continue, given the challenges still facing the region. Therefore, we suggest investors keep Eurozone equity allocations in line with policy weights. Since their recent relative low point at the […]

March 2023

VantagePoint: Too Much Optimism Amid Uncertainty

What a difference a couple of months makes. Economic conditions have improved since year-end 2022 due to the heady brew of China lifting its zero-COVID policy, Europe navigating its energy crisis better than anticipated, and cooling inflation in the United States. In early February, an exceptionally strong US labor report and a sharp rebound in […]

February 2023

ASEAN Equities: Surprising to the Upside

Southeast Asia, also known as ASEAN (The Association of Southeast Asian Nations), was a relative safe haven for investors in 2022. In local currency terms, ASEAN equities returned -0.1% in 2022, outperforming Asia ex Japan (AxJ) and developed markets (DM) equities, which were down more than 15%. While ASEAN currencies have been under pressure, the […]

February 2023

Is January's US Small-Cap Equity Performance Sustainable?

Yes, we expect US small-cap equities will outperform US large-cap equities this year. Our view is based on the belief that the large valuation spread that exists will likely narrow and that large company earnings are likely more at risk of missing expectations than small company earnings. To overweight small-cap equities, we recommend funding it from […]

February 2023

Are US Equity Investors Too Sanguine About US Economic Prospects?

Yes, it is likely that the “softish landing” implied by forward consensus earnings expectations will fail to transpire. In contrast, we anticipate a recession, given the decline in leading economic indicators and our view that the Federal Reserve will not be quick to cut rates to support activity. After adjusting downward in recent weeks, consensus […]

January 2023