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VantagePoint: Is It Time to Overweight Equities?

In periods of market stress, it can be difficult to rebalance, much less overweight risky assets like equities. In this paper, we review our approach using multiple lenses: magnitude and duration of drawdowns relative to history, cheapness of valuations, and presence of pre-conditions for markets to begin their ascent. Such an approach can help investors tune out the emotion and dial in on the hard data and most probable outcomes even in the face of great uncertainty. While opportunities are developing across many markets, investors should hold off on broad overweights to risky assets at this time.

April 2020

Are You Expecting Another "Tech Wreck" Like 20 Years Ago?

No, we doubt the equity market’s heightened tech concentration will trigger an imminent correction. Rather, tech stocks’ outsized weighting reflects their superior growth and free cash flow this cycle. Amid a lackluster macroeconomic backdrop, historically low discount rates have boosted the appeal of the most profitable and liquid segment of the global equity universe, namely […]

February 2020

Will Weak Economic Data in the Euro Area Undercut Its Equities?

No, we don’t think so. While euro area economic activity has weakened meaningfully, with real GDP growth falling to its lowest annual pace (1.1%) since 2013 in third quarter, strong equity returns aren’t dependent on robust economic growth. Ultimately, we continue to like the bloc as part of a risk-controlled overweight to global ex US equities funded from US equities.

December 2019

Should Investors Chase the Rally in China A-Shares?

Yes, but only if you can tolerate the volatility. Chinese A-shares have surged in 2019, rising nearly 23% as of March 8. In 2018, A-shares’ -29% return was one of the worst among major markets, but renewed optimism this year over US-China trade negotiations sparked the sharp rebound.

March 2019

Should Investors Fret About Declining Earnings Estimates?

Investors shouldn't sweat the recent downgrades to global earnings forecasts. Although analysts have cut their expectations substantially since September, they still expect most regions to grow in the mid-single digits in 2019.

February 2019

Are US Quality Stocks Still Defensive?

Yes, if you control for tech overweights. Quality has historically been quite defensive relative to the broad market. Today, it is sensible to question quality’s defensive characteristics, as the factor is concentrated in tech stocks and has become quite expensive.

October 2018

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