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Insights

In an Environment of Declining Demographics and Slow Productivity Growth, What Investments Look Attractive?

Investments with the potential to earn returns competitive with equities—without a dependence on economic growth—are especially valuable diversifiers for portfolios. Such investments are varied, sometimes niche, and require skilled implementation. Many require some illiquidity, but may compensate by distributing income. Headline risk is also often a major consideration, so such investments are not for everyone. […]

May 2017

Maintaining Strategic Direction through Peaks and Valleys

An extended bull market can tempt even the savviest investors into abandoning their long-term discipline. Resisting the impulse to switch horses in the middle of the race is hard, but necessary—the most important trait of successful investors is their ability to maintain discipline in sticking to a long-term strategy during good times and bad. Diversified portfolios—structured to earn returns comparable to their rate of spending at tolerable levels of risk—have benefitted long-term investors and grown their purchasing power for decades, and we have no reason to expect a different outcome when today’s bull market inevitably corrects.

April 2017

Should Investors Buy Downside Protection to Hedge Against an Equity Market Drop?

We don’t think so. Investors with diversified portfolios already have some cushion if equities sell off given holdings like fixed income, hedge funds, and other diversifying assets. Further, trying to time the market by buying derivatives or substantially reducing equity exposure is rife with behavioral risks that could see investors ceasing to purchase protection just […]

April 2017

VantagePoint: Second Quarter 2017

This quarter’s edition discusses the reflationary environment, positioning in global equities, prospects for sovereign bonds (both nominal and inflation-linked), and USD strength. We also profile two strategies that can diversify portfolios without dependence on economic growth: life settlements and pharmaceutical royalties.

April 2017

Does US Corporate Tax Reform Endanger Private Debt Strategies?

No. If the interest expense deduction is eliminated, debt issuance may drop slightly, but the demand for senior and mezzanine debt will be little changed, and the risk/reward proposition is still attractive for investors. Under the new tax regime outlined in the GOP’s Tax Reform Task Force’s Better Way “blueprint,” the highest corporate tax rate […]

March 2017

What’s Next for the US Dollar?

We still expect a rising US dollar over the coming year or so; however, the currency is entering the final phase of the strong-dollar cycle and investors should be aware that valuations and historical cycles suggest USD weakness over the coming decade. After weakening for most of 2016, the US dollar sprang back to life […]

March 2017

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