Has the US-China Trade War Ensnarled the Euro Area?
The seemingly ever-expanding US-China trade war has undercut economic activity in the euro area, challenging earnings expectations and the bloc’s currency.
June 2019
Given Prolonged US Equity Market Dominance, Should Investors Reconsider Existing Overweights to Global ex US Stocks?
No, we believe investors should maintain a modest tilt away from US equities and toward global ex US stocks.
May 2019
VantagePoint: Second Quarter 2019
We recently argued that investors should take a systematic and comprehensive approach to investing in China, overweighting Chinese assets relative to their index weights. This edition of VantagePoint addresses five key questions regarding implementation decisions.
April 2019
The US Yield Curve Inverted! Should Investors Underweight Risk?
Although an inverted yield curve is not a sign we welcome, it also is not a clear indicator of an imminent equity market downturn. Instead of underweighting risky assets, we suggest investors take this opportunity to refresh plans to manage through the next bear market.
April 2019
With Brexit Stress Peaking, Should Investors Tactically Increase Exposure to UK Equities?
No, we don’t believe the politics of Brexit are conducive to tactical asset allocation.
March 2019
Should Investors Chase the Rally in China A-Shares?
Yes, but only if you can tolerate the volatility. Chinese A-shares have surged in 2019, rising nearly 23% as of March 8. In 2018, A-shares’ -29% return was one of the worst among major markets, but renewed optimism this year over US-China trade negotiations sparked the sharp rebound.
March 2019
The Case for Dedicated China Exposure
While we have advised a gradual approach to investing in China, today we believe that investors should take a systematic and comprehensive approach, overweighting Chinese assets relative to their index weights. Looking past the uncertainty and negativity, investors will find a large investment opportunity set, a robust universe of public and private managers, and appealing public equity valuations.
March 2019
Should Investors Fret About Declining Earnings Estimates?
Investors shouldn't sweat the recent downgrades to global earnings forecasts. Although analysts have cut their expectations substantially since September, they still expect most regions to grow in the mid-single digits in 2019.
February 2019