Should Investors Avoid China Due to Rising US-China Tensions?

No, we still believe China remains an important exposure for investment portfolios.

May 2020

US Unemployment Rate Reflects Economic Toll of COVID-19

The US economy lost a staggering 20.5 million jobs in April, in the worst plunge in payrolls since the Great Depression, according to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on May 8.

May 2020

Benefits of Global Diversification

Investors are now grappling with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has sent global equities into bear market territory as the threat of a severe recession weighs on the global economy. These are challenging, uncertain times for equity markets. As investors work to ensure their portfolios will be robust through this downturn and are positioned for the eventual rebound, we offer a review of the critical benefits of global equity diversification and examine considerations related to home bias, rebalancing strategies, and currency impacts.

April 2020

Life After Zero: Reassessing the Role of Sovereign Bonds with Negative Nominal Yields

Nominal high-quality sovereign bond yields throughout developed markets have plummeted toward zero, increasing the likelihood that most developed markets may soon need to contend with negative yields, and leading investors to question whether high-quality sovereign bonds are still the best form of insurance. In light of these developments, we examine the historical safe-haven characteristics of high-quality sovereign bonds and assesses whether they remain a viable safe-haven asset.

April 2020

VantagePoint: Is It Time to Overweight Equities?

In periods of market stress, it can be difficult to rebalance, much less overweight risky assets like equities. In this paper, we review our approach using multiple lenses: magnitude and duration of drawdowns relative to history, cheapness of valuations, and presence of pre-conditions for markets to begin their ascent. Such an approach can help investors tune out the emotion and dial in on the hard data and most probable outcomes even in the face of great uncertainty. While opportunities are developing across many markets, investors should hold off on broad overweights to risky assets at this time.

April 2020

The Complex Relationship Between Inflation and Asset Prices

March 23, 2020— As we write in March 2020, COVID-19 is spreading across much of the world, undercutting economic activity. While how this situation will unfold is not entirely clear, we have long believed that the best way to guard against future uncertainty is to have a well-constructed portfolio. One key component in that is understanding the relationship between asset prices and inflation.

March 2020

VantagePoint: The Bear Awakens

March 18, 2020—The bear has finally come out of his long hibernation, causing us to dust off our playbook for weathering bear markets.

March 2020

Rate Cuts Are No Vaccine

March 16, 2020— The Federal Reserve Bank has announced a host of emergency measures intended to improve bond market liquidity and reduce borrowing costs, which come in response to rising signs of dislocation across Treasury, municipal, and corporate bond markets.

March 2020