VantagePoint: Too Much Optimism Amid Uncertainty

What a difference a couple of months makes. Economic conditions have improved since year-end 2022 due to the heady brew of China lifting its zero-COVID policy, Europe navigating its energy crisis better than anticipated, and cooling inflation in the United States. In early February, an exceptionally strong US labor report and a sharp rebound in […]

February 2023

ASEAN Equities: Surprising to the Upside

Southeast Asia, also known as ASEAN (The Association of Southeast Asian Nations), was a relative safe haven for investors in 2022. In local currency terms, ASEAN equities returned -0.1% in 2022, outperforming Asia ex Japan (AxJ) and developed markets (DM) equities, which were down more than 15%. While ASEAN currencies have been under pressure, the […]

February 2023

Is January's US Small-Cap Equity Performance Sustainable?

Yes, we expect US small-cap equities will outperform US large-cap equities this year. Our view is based on the belief that the large valuation spread that exists will likely narrow and that large company earnings are likely more at risk of missing expectations than small company earnings. To overweight small-cap equities, we recommend funding it from […]

February 2023

Are US Equity Investors Too Sanguine About US Economic Prospects?

Yes, it is likely that the “softish landing” implied by forward consensus earnings expectations will fail to transpire. In contrast, we anticipate a recession, given the decline in leading economic indicators and our view that the Federal Reserve will not be quick to cut rates to support activity. After adjusting downward in recent weeks, consensus […]

January 2023

Will Monetary Policy Become Less of a Headwind for Markets in 2023?

Yes. Markets will be less vulnerable to rising rate risk next year, as the aggressive tightening that has weighed on markets for much of 2022 has moderated more recently since inflation has slowed. However, we see a pause in tightening as more likely than a pivot to easing in 2023 because inflation will be slow […]

December 2022

2023 Outlook

The Cambridge Associates Outlook 2023 report features our investment outlook for the upcoming year.

December 2022

2023 Outlook: Portfolio Wide

We expect most investors should maintain equity allocations in line with policy targets. Consistent with this idea, we believe investors with portfolios that are more diversified across risk exposures will tend to fare better than investors holding more correlated investments. Investors Following Rebalancing Plans Will Be Rewarded in 2023 Kevin Rosenbaum, Global Head of Capital […]

December 2022

2023 Outlook: Sustainability & Impact

We expect meaningful shifts in net zero and other sustainable and impact strategies toward more impactful implementation approaches. In line with this, we expect allocations to diverse managers to rise, as greater numbers of investors embrace stated investment policy objectives. Approaches to Climate & Net Zero Shift from Window Dressing to Real Change in 2023 […]

December 2022