Does the Iran War Change Our View on the US Dollar?

No, we continue to believe the US dollar faces meaningful downside risks over the next few years and recommend that investors remain underweight the dollar in portfolios. While the US dollar could appreciate further in the near term if the conflict in Iran intensifies and oil prices continue to rise, the situation in the Middle […]

March 2026

Will the Iran Conflict Trigger a Pandemic-Style Inflation Spike?

No, we do not think this is the likely outcome. While the path forward is highly uncertain, several key factors—including the typically limited pass-through of energy price increases to broader inflation, the possibility that the conflict remains short-lived, and the unique circumstances behind the 2021–22 inflation surge—suggest that a repeat of pandemic-era inflation is unlikely. […]

March 2026

Should Credit Investors Be Concerned About Rising AI-Related Debt Issuance?

Yes. Credit investors should be concerned about rising artificial intelligence (AI)-related debt issuance for several reasons. Credit spreads are near historic lows and are likely to face pressure from surging bond supply, of which AI-related investment is just one driver. Fundamentals look healthy for most so-called “hyperscalers,” but other companies may see a concerning rise […]

March 2026

Has Private Equity Hit Peak Software?

No, we expect software investing to continue to loom large in private equity as it expands to incorporate the opportunities presented by artificial intelligence (AI) while managers also work rapidly to protect existing investments, which are most at risk. Not long after the Federal Reserve began increasing interest rates in March 2022, ChatGPT was publicly […]

February 2026

Sustainable Investing in Focus: Innovating for Resilience

In the second episode of Sustainable Investing in Focus, Liqian Ma, Head of Sustainable and Impact Investing Research, and David Gowenlock, Senior Investment Director, Sustainable & Impact Investing,  provide an in-depth discussion of the future of sustainable investing. Their conversation explores how established business models are being repurposed to address sustainability challenges. David and Liqian […]

February 2026

Will the Trump Administration’s Affordability Policies Jump-Start the US Residential Real Estate Sector?

No. The proposed policies are unlikely to swiftly resolve the challenges facing US residential real estate. While recent proposals may offer marginal support, they are not significant enough to improve deteriorating housing affordability. Given that most policy measures do not meaningfully address the core issues—limited supply and elevated mortgage rates—we do not expect a significant […]

February 2026

Japanese Election Result Should Boost the Economy and Ultimately the Japanese Yen

Sunday’s decisive electoral victory for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan’s Lower House elections led to a more than 2% rally in Japanese equities today, driven by expectations of fiscal stimulus. Meanwhile, Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and the Japanese yen (JPY) remained largely unchanged, as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi reaffirmed a commitment to support […]

February 2026

VantagePoint: Asian Equities Revisited

Two years ago, we explored the shifting landscape of Asian markets amid geopolitical tensions and evolving global supply chains. Since then, we have continued to revisit our original themes and test our assumptions with input from colleagues and asset managers based in the region. As we reflect on how our outlook has evolved over the […]

January 2026