The US federal government shut down overnight after the Senate failed to reach an agreement on funding government operations before the September 30 deadline. During a shutdown, “non-essential” federal agencies and programs that rely on annual discretionary appropriations must cease operations until funding is restored. Historically, shutdowns have been short-lived—averaging eight days—and have had negligible […]
October 2025
No. Despite last week’s rate cut, we do not recommend that most investors increase their core real estate exposure. Although real estate assets should benefit from renewed Federal Reserve easing—which would lower debt costs and improve relative yields—valuations remain elevated and sector-specific challenges remain. While neutral on broad core real estate exposures at this time, […]
September 2025
Yes. Current market expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower its policy rate by roughly 150 basis points (bps) by the end of next year are overly optimistic. While we expect a 25-bp cut on September 17, we believe additional cuts through 2026 will be more gradual than markets anticipate, given persistent inflation and a […]
September 2025
Yes. In our view, developed markets (DM) ex US small-cap stocks are well positioned to continue outpacing their larger-cap counterparts. We expect this trend to persist due to three key factors: reduced sensitivity to global tariff changes, attractive relative valuations, and improving international economic fundamentals—including supportive policy and currency trends. For investors seeking to capitalize […]
September 2025
No. Although recent underperformance has led some investors to question whether trend-following is facing deeper structural issues, the strategy is inherently cyclical. Periods of unfavourable conditions are typically temporary, meaning drawdowns have often been followed by strong recoveries. Trend-following remains one of the few strategies with a proven track record of diversification and providing alpha […]
August 2025
Yes, the period of greatest tariff uncertainty for global equity investors is likely behind us. Markets have gained increased clarity on the likely range of US tariff rates, and the most severe trade scenarios that were a real concern a few months ago now appear less probable. While tariffs will continue to contribute to equity […]
July 2025
In our previous articles for the PREA Quarterly, we noted that in 2024, for the first time since we began tracking fundraising trends, infrastructure fundraising activity surpassed that of real estate, as shown in Exhibit 1. Infrastructure continues to garner investor interest as the asset class provides resilient income with inflation protection, exposure to megatrends […]
July 2025
The US dollar and US equities have experienced a decade-long bull market that has significantly increased USD exposure across investor portfolios. Recently, the dollar has declined amid heightened global economic uncertainty, raising concerns about a possible prolonged downturn. Considering these developments, we believe investors should underweight the dollar relative to the allocation implied by their […]
July 2025