Tariff Standoff Intensifies Near-Term Risks in Asia

Global equities tumbled nearly 8% last week following the announcement of US tariffs on April 2, with the rout continuing into Monday, April 7. Key Asian markets have declined 3%–13% on Monday, partly reflecting the delayed reaction from markets that were closed on Friday, while US and European markets experienced wild swings after opening sharply […]

April 2025

Should Investors Underweight Equities in Light of Recent Market Volatility?

No, investors should hold equity allocations in line with their policy portfolio weights. Trade policy uncertainty has forced many investors to reassess the trajectory of global economic growth, sending ripples through markets, and prompting US equities to enter a “correction” on March 13. Still, there are strong arguments for holding equity allocations steady. For instance, […]

March 2025

Are Indian Equities an Attractive Overweight After the Recent Sell-Off?

No, we do not think so. India’s economic growth is set to continue moderating, which may lead to further downgrades to stretched earnings growth expectations. Current equity valuations remain elevated, which poses additional downside risk. Still, the recent correction has taken some froth out of the market, and India’s longer-term structural tailwinds remain intact. As […]

March 2025

Are US Equities Set to Repeat the Dot-Com Bust of the Early 2000s?

No, we don’t think so. There are parallels between today’s AI-related developments and the internet revolution of the late 1990s and early 2000s, as both eras involve profound technological change. Market concentration, increased capital investments, and valuation risks are among those parallels. However, the quality of companies today is higher and speculative excesses are less […]

February 2025

Should Investors Underweight Euro Area Equities Given Trade Wars, Elections, and the Weak Growth Outlook?

No. All three factors have weighed on euro area equity and currency markets to some extent in recent months. That has ranged from directly, by crimping economic activity; potentially dragging down future growth, by weighing on domestic economic confidence; or simply by denting the sentiment of fearful investors towards the region. However, a material degree […]

February 2025

Will President Trump’s Proposed Policy Initiatives Drive More US Large-Cap Equity Outperformance?

No, we don’t think so. President Donald Trump made numerous campaign pledges, including additional corporate tax cuts and deregulation, which could be seen as beneficial for US large-cap stocks. On Inauguration Day, he acted on some of these pledges with a wave of executive orders, addressing topics from more lenient AI regulation to accelerating energy […]

January 2025

2025 Outlook: Public Equities

We expect developed markets (DM) value and small-cap equities to outperform, given our economic views and their steep valuation discounts. Regionally, we believe US equity performance will not match the level set in 2024, allowing European, Japanese, and emerging markets (EM) equities to perform more in line with broader developed markets. Within emerging markets, strong […]

December 2024

Will Japanese Equities Outperform Global Equities in US Dollars?

No, we do not expect Japanese mid-/large-cap equities to outperform their global peers despite some supportive factors, such as Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) reforms and inflows from security investment schemes. Japanese equities tend to underperform in global activity slowdowns and contractions, and current valuations do not offer sufficient compensation to bear that risk, given our […]

October 2024