Insights

Should Investors Chase the Bitcoin and Gold Rallies?

No. While recent developments may be a sign that bitcoin is gaining credibility, it remains a highly speculative investment that offers no cash flows. Gold—a more stable and defensive option than bitcoin—also offers no yield. Investors looking for portfolio defense should look to long US Treasury securities, which offer reasonable yields and protection in a […]

March 2024

Better Alternative(s): Private Investments May Improve Outcomes for Defined Contribution Plan Participants

For decades, many institutional investors with private investment (PI) exposure have generated strong long-term returns. However, defined contribution (DC) plan participants have not been able to benefit in the same way, as employers have historically been limited to investment line-ups featuring predominantly public market asset classes. Although greater flexibility is emerging, the question remains how […]

March 2024

Can US Equity Dominance Be Sustained?

No, we anticipate performance will broaden out beyond mega-cap tech stocks, which have driven US equity performance in recent years. Tech giants are vulnerable to disappointment by the elevated expectations reflected in valuations. Even well-run tech giants that continue to dominate their sectors and maintain high profitability may not deliver strong returns if their stock […]

March 2024

In Private Investment, Diverse Fund Management Teams Have Opened Doors

Portfolio diversification is fundamental to effective investment risk management. The term “diversification” traditionally includes asset classes, investment approaches, industry sectors, and geographies. But a vital and often-overlooked dimension of diversification is the people driving portfolio decision making. This dimension of diversification may be especially important in private markets because an asset manager’s deal sourcing is […]

March 2024

VantagePoint: Can US Equity Dominance Be Sustained?

Since 2010, US equities have been unstoppable, outperforming developed markets equities outside the United States (DM ex US) by a whopping 5.5 percentage points (ppts) annually, with few periods of short-lived, intermittent underperformance. Recently, this outperformance has been led by a small set of US tech giants. In this edition of VantagePoint, we review the […]

February 2024

Are Emerging Markets Equities Finally Set to Outperform, Given Expectations for Federal Reserve Rate Cuts This Year?

No. Although emerging markets (EM) stocks typically outperform after the onset of Federal Reserve easing, we suspect this episode will be different. The growing chance of a US soft landing—coupled with sluggish growth expectations globally—suggest that cuts could be modest and that the US dollar will hold its value. These conditions do not meaningfully shift […]

February 2024

The United Kingdom and Japan Entered Technical Recessions in Q4

UK GDP fell by more than expected in fourth quarter 2023, according to new data released on February 15, 2024, which pushed the country into a technical recession. It joined fellow G7 economy, Japan, which had earlier undershot expectations and delivered a second consecutive quarter of negative growth. Despite contrasting fortunes in UK and Japanese […]

February 2024

Will There be a Second Wave of Inflation?

No, we expect Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will continue to moderate toward central bank target levels in 2024. As a result, we believe key central banks will cut policy rates modestly this year to avoid overtightening. This should support our view that investors should hold a modest overweight to long Treasury bonds. Global inflation […]

February 2024