Economic activity is fundamentally driven by the size of the labor force and the productivity of that labor. With working-age populations expected to stagnate or decline in many countries due to falling birth rates, future economic growth will increasingly depend on productivity improvements rather than workforce expansion. Yet, recent years have seen disappointing productivity gains, raising […]
July 2025
Generative AI marks a pivotal moment in AI, with the 2022 public release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT as a major milestone. As discussed in Part 1 of this three-part series, AI is a transformative technology paradigm that will continue to evolve over the next decade and beyond. While significant investment has fueled rapid growth in AI […]
July 2025
Yes, we believe a combination of attractive valuations, a shifting macro and policy environment, and stretched US profitability will allow non-US equities to continue outperforming. The overvalued US dollar may also reduce the attractiveness of US assets to foreign investors while acting as a tailwind for USD investors allocating to foreign assets. During the first […]
July 2025
Last weekend, the United States conducted airstrikes on three of Iran’s principal nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. This marked a further escalation in Middle East tensions, which had already intensified after Israel began airstrikes on Iran on June 13. In response, Iran has now directly targeted US interests, launching missiles at US bases in Iraq […]
June 2025
No. US Treasury securities are likely to remain among the most effective diversifiers during periods of equity market stress. While US fiscal and policy concerns have contributed to recent volatility, the attractive attributes of US Treasury securities should sustain global demand and support their central role in multi-asset portfolios. However, no single asset is a […]
May 2025
Yes, California Carbon Allowances (CCAs) are an attractive investment opportunity, though they come with political tail risk. California’s Cap-and-Trade Program requires companies in regulated industries to purchase CCAs to offset a portion of their carbon emissions. The CCA supply is mandated to decline over time to support higher carbon prices and discourage emissions. After peaking […]
May 2025
Emerging markets (EM) economies were among the hardest hit as part of US President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariff announcement. This was because EM countries tend to run trade surpluses with the United States and the administration’s tariff methodology ostensibly focused on bilateral trade deficits. While trade negotiations may ultimately result in a less draconian […]
May 2025
Introduction Aaron Costello, Head of Asia, and Vivian Gan, Investment Director, Capital Markets Research Asian and global market volatility surged in early 2025 as US tariffs triggered global growth fears. Given the export-oriented nature of most Asian economies and their sensitivity to global growth and demand, the region may bear the brunt of US tariffs. […]
April 2025
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