Historically, we have recommended investors hold high-quality government bonds as a counterbalance in equity-heavy portfolios. However, in recent years, some investors have reduced their exposure to government bonds, given their low yields, in favor of cash. This was prescient in 2022. Global equities returned -16% in local currency terms, but government bonds also suffered steep […]
June 2023
On 20 March, investors awoke to news Swiss authorities had used emergency measures to push through a hastily arranged merger of Credit Suisse and UBS. Following two recent bank failures in the United States, the announcement raised questions over the health of European banks and the broader economy. While market pressure on another European financial […]
March 2023
What a difference a year makes. In the second half of 2021, investors were talking about a potential prolonged Goldilocks market. By year-end 2022, the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index had posted its worst annual return on record and the S&P 500 had experienced a substantial pullback from recent historical highs. Amid this turbulence, pension […]
March 2023
Yes. Markets will be less vulnerable to rising rate risk next year, as the aggressive tightening that has weighed on markets for much of 2022 has moderated more recently since inflation has slowed. However, we see a pause in tightening as more likely than a pivot to easing in 2023 because inflation will be slow […]
December 2022
We expect interest rates will increase in many developed markets, as implied by market pricing. But we think the Fed will hold rates in restrictive territory for longer than expected. We don’t believe any increases will prompt another European sovereign debt crisis. US Federal Reserve Pauses, but Does Not Pivot in 2023 Celia Dallas, Chief […]
December 2022
With inflation running at multi-decade highs, monetary policymakers are united in one of the most aggressive tightening campaigns in decades. Most central banks have already significantly increased policy rates this year, and some are unwinding their massive balance sheets, also known as quantitative tightening (QT). From what we know about QT, we expect it to […]
November 2022
Yes. Munis still have value on an after-tax basis over the long term, and their near-term outlook has improved following the rise in yields and spreads during this year’s sell-off. Still, the economic and policy backdrop remains challenging. Thus, we believe it is reasonable for most taxable investors to hold a reduced portion of their […]
August 2022
No, as the risk/reward remains uncompelling and spreads may widen further if a recession ensues. However, the sell-off has enhanced our enthusiasm for collateralized loan obligation (CLO) debt, which offers attractive pricing, solid fundamentals, and lower interest rate sensitivity than most other credit investments. Prices for most credit assets have declined in 2022, as have […]
July 2022