VantagePoint: Third Quarter 2019
In this edition of VantagePoint, we uncover four of the most common inaccuracies we hear about US equities.
July 2019
Could the Equity and Bond Markets Both be Right About the Macro Outlook?
Yes. While equity and bond markets don’t often rise in tandem like they have lately, history suggests that both recent moves could be warranted if central bank stimulus successfully extends the cycle. But that is a big “if”; several moving parts cloud the macro outlook, and markets are assuming that central banks can reverse the recent economic slowdown.
July 2019
Does an Extended US-China Trade War Change the Strategic Investment Case for China?
No. While we do not expect the trade war to end after President Trump and President Xi meet this week at the G20 in Japan, we have not changed our view that investors should consider dedicated allocations to China broadly and A-shares in particular.
June 2019
Has the US-China Trade War Ensnarled the Euro Area?
The seemingly ever-expanding US-China trade war has undercut economic activity in the euro area, challenging earnings expectations and the bloc’s currency.
June 2019
Given Prolonged US Equity Market Dominance, Should Investors Reconsider Existing Overweights to Global ex US Stocks?
No, we believe investors should maintain a modest tilt away from US equities and toward global ex US stocks.
May 2019
VantagePoint: Second Quarter 2019
We recently argued that investors should take a systematic and comprehensive approach to investing in China, overweighting Chinese assets relative to their index weights. This edition of VantagePoint addresses five key questions regarding implementation decisions.
April 2019
The US Yield Curve Inverted! Should Investors Underweight Risk?
Although an inverted yield curve is not a sign we welcome, it also is not a clear indicator of an imminent equity market downturn. Instead of underweighting risky assets, we suggest investors take this opportunity to refresh plans to manage through the next bear market.
April 2019
With Brexit Stress Peaking, Should Investors Tactically Increase Exposure to UK Equities?
No, we don’t believe the politics of Brexit are conducive to tactical asset allocation.
March 2019