Rising from the Ashes: Key Developments Since the Global Financial Crisis
In this report, we briefly highlight five key post-GFC developments and discuss how investors might adapt their portfolios to these changes.
September 2018
In Light of Ongoing “Brexit” Uncertainty, Should Investors Reduce Exposure to UK Equities?
No, investors should consider staying the course. Though developments and headlines associated with the United Kingdom’s Article 50 negotiations with the European Union have been and likely will remain fitful, they reflect more the political nature of the process and less the underlying fundamentals of the economy and its listed equities.
August 2018
Amid Rising Risks, Should Investors Maintain Credit Allocations?
Yes, but investors should be selective in allocating to credit markets at this point in the cycle, and understand that the overvaluation of many credit assets could make attractive returns hard to come by.
August 2018
Are Emerging Markets Equities Vulnerable to a Rising US Dollar?
Solid fundamentals in most countries should limit the damage. The largest markets are not particularly exposed to the risk of a classic balance-of-payments crisis (like the ones occurring today in a handful of smaller markets, including Turkey and Argentina).
July 2018
VantagePoint: Third Quarter 2018
Climbing the wall of worries is getting tougher. There is room for markets to progress, but caution is required at this stage in the cycle. Markets must overcome four main forces: monetary policy tightening, US dollar strength, a China growth slowdown, and trade friction.
July 2018
Should Investors Boost Their Exposure to US Small Caps, in Light of Recent Economic Policy and Geopolitical Developments?
We don’t believe so. US small caps have benefited from cyclical tailwinds this year, including strengthening US growth and their more domestic orientation (helpful as the dollar strengthens and trade frictions increase), with small-cap earnings estimated to grow twice as fast as large-cap earnings in 2018.
July 2018
Will the Addition of Chinese A-shares to MSCI’s Global Indexes Trigger an A-Share Rally?
No, MSCI index inclusion will not trigger a bull market in Chinese A-shares.* Given the very modest initial weights and the lack of clarity on future increases, we doubt that index-driven flows will drive share prices meaningfully higher.
June 2018
Trade Finance: An Expanding Opportunity for Institutional Investors
While trade finance is among the oldest forms of institutionalized credit, it has only recently become an accessible market for most institutional investors. Providing high liquidity, good return premiums over cash, and a predictable risk profile, it can play a valuable role in portfolio strategy. However, as a fairly new option for most investors, its […]
May 2018