Investors should overweight global ex US equities in 2026 by Thomas O’Mahony Global ex US equities have outperformed US equities by 4.4 percentage points (ppts) in local currency terms so far in 2025 and by 11.2 ppts in USD terms. We believe that conditions are in place to see that outperformance trend continue in 2026 […]
December 2025
Yes. Current market expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower its policy rate by roughly 150 basis points (bps) by the end of next year are overly optimistic. While we expect a 25-bp cut on September 17, we believe additional cuts through 2026 will be more gradual than markets anticipate, given persistent inflation and a […]
September 2025
Yes. In our view, developed markets (DM) ex US small-cap stocks are well positioned to continue outpacing their larger-cap counterparts. We expect this trend to persist due to three key factors: reduced sensitivity to global tariff changes, attractive relative valuations, and improving international economic fundamentals—including supportive policy and currency trends. For investors seeking to capitalize […]
September 2025
Yes. We believe Latin America (LatAm) will benefit from today’s shifting market dynamics, supporting its outperformance over broader emerging markets (EM) stocks. LatAm equity and currency valuations are deeply discounted and the region is relatively insulated from trade and geopolitical tensions—especially compared to Asia. We recommend investors adopt a modest overweight to LatAm equities, funded […]
July 2025
Economic activity is fundamentally driven by the size of the labor force and the productivity of that labor. With working-age populations expected to stagnate or decline in many countries due to falling birth rates, future economic growth will increasingly depend on productivity improvements rather than workforce expansion. Yet, recent years have seen disappointing productivity gains, raising […]
July 2025
Generative AI marks a pivotal moment in AI, with the 2022 public release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT as a major milestone. As discussed in Part 1 of this three-part series, AI is a transformative technology paradigm that will continue to evolve over the next decade and beyond. While significant investment has fueled rapid growth in AI […]
July 2025
Yes, we believe a combination of attractive valuations, a shifting macro and policy environment, and stretched US profitability will allow non-US equities to continue outperforming. The overvalued US dollar may also reduce the attractiveness of US assets to foreign investors while acting as a tailwind for USD investors allocating to foreign assets. During the first […]
July 2025
Last weekend, the United States conducted airstrikes on three of Iran’s principal nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. This marked a further escalation in Middle East tensions, which had already intensified after Israel began airstrikes on Iran on June 13. In response, Iran has now directly targeted US interests, launching missiles at US bases in Iraq […]
June 2025