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Over the Long Term, Diversification Still Wins

Since 2009, US equities have outperformed every major asset class by a considerable margin, returning 14.5% a year on average. And, over the same period, a simple 70% US equity/30% bond portfolio* returned 11.4% per year, on average. These kinds of results can tempt even the savviest investors into abandoning their long-term discipline and chasing […]

June 2017

Playing the Long Game—Should the US Treasury Issue Ultra-Long Bonds?

Answers to our clients’ questions about market action and the market environment in a few paragraphs every two weeks. Yes. Issuance of ultra-long Treasury bonds (greater than 30 years to maturity, including potentially 40-, 50-, and 100-year maturities) would benefit multiple constituents. Ultra-long Treasuries would extend the investable Treasury curve for pension plans and life […]

June 2017

In an Environment of Declining Demographics and Slow Productivity Growth, What Investments Look Attractive?

Answers to our clients’ questions about market action and the market environment in a few paragraphs every two weeks. Investments with the potential to earn returns competitive with equities—without a dependence on economic growth—are especially valuable diversifiers for portfolios. Such investments are varied, sometimes niche, and require skilled implementation. Many require some illiquidity, but may […]

May 2017

Maintaining Strategic Direction through Peaks and Valleys

An extended bull market can tempt even the savviest investors into abandoning their long-term discipline. Resisting the impulse to switch horses in the middle of the race is hard, but necessary—the most important trait of successful investors is their ability to maintain discipline in sticking to a long-term strategy during good times and bad. Diversified portfolios—structured to earn returns comparable to their rate of spending at tolerable levels of risk—have benefitted long-term investors and grown their purchasing power for decades, and we have no reason to expect a different outcome when today’s bull market inevitably corrects.

April 2017

Should Investors Buy Downside Protection to Hedge Against an Equity Market Drop?

Answers to our clients’ questions about market action and the market environment in a few paragraphs every two weeks. We don’t think so. Investors with diversified portfolios already have some cushion if equities sell off given holdings like fixed income, hedge funds, and other diversifying assets. Further, trying to time the market by buying derivatives […]

April 2017

VantagePoint: Second Quarter 2017

This quarter’s edition discusses the reflationary environment, positioning in global equities, prospects for sovereign bonds (both nominal and inflation-linked), and USD strength. We also profile two strategies that can diversify portfolios without dependence on economic growth: life settlements and pharmaceutical royalties.

April 2017

Does US Corporate Tax Reform Endanger Private Debt Strategies?

Answers to our clients’ questions about market action and the market environment in a few paragraphs every two weeks. No. If the interest expense deduction is eliminated, debt issuance may drop slightly, but the demand for senior and mezzanine debt will be little changed, and the risk/reward proposition is still attractive for investors. Under the […]

March 2017

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