In an Environment of Declining Demographics and Slow Productivity Growth, What Investments Look Attractive?

Answers to our clients’ questions about market action and the market environment in a few paragraphs every two weeks. Investments with the potential to earn returns competitive with equities—without a dependence on economic growth—are especially valuable diversifiers for portfolios. Such investments are varied, sometimes niche, and require skilled implementation. Many require some illiquidity, but may […]

May 2017

Do the Results of the First Round of the French Presidential Election Sound the All Clear for European Risk Assets?

Answers to our clients’ questions about market action and the market environment in a few paragraphs every two weeks. Although the election results provide a powerful “risk-on” catalyst in the short term, the underlying long-term problems facing France and the Eurozone are unlikely to go away under a Macron presidency, so the old adage “sell […]

April 2017

Maintaining Strategic Direction through Peaks and Valleys

An extended bull market can tempt even the savviest investors into abandoning their long-term discipline. Resisting the impulse to switch horses in the middle of the race is hard, but necessary—the most important trait of successful investors is their ability to maintain discipline in sticking to a long-term strategy during good times and bad. Diversified portfolios—structured to earn returns comparable to their rate of spending at tolerable levels of risk—have benefitted long-term investors and grown their purchasing power for decades, and we have no reason to expect a different outcome when today’s bull market inevitably corrects.

April 2017

Should Investors Buy Downside Protection to Hedge Against an Equity Market Drop?

Answers to our clients’ questions about market action and the market environment in a few paragraphs every two weeks. We don’t think so. Investors with diversified portfolios already have some cushion if equities sell off given holdings like fixed income, hedge funds, and other diversifying assets. Further, trying to time the market by buying derivatives […]

April 2017

VantagePoint: Second Quarter 2017

This quarter’s edition discusses the reflationary environment, positioning in global equities, prospects for sovereign bonds (both nominal and inflation-linked), and USD strength. We also profile two strategies that can diversify portfolios without dependence on economic growth: life settlements and pharmaceutical royalties.

April 2017

Does US Corporate Tax Reform Endanger Private Debt Strategies?

Answers to our clients’ questions about market action and the market environment in a few paragraphs every two weeks. No. If the interest expense deduction is eliminated, debt issuance may drop slightly, but the demand for senior and mezzanine debt will be little changed, and the risk/reward proposition is still attractive for investors. Under the […]

March 2017

What’s Next for the US Dollar?

Answers to our clients’ questions about market action and the market environment in a few paragraphs every two weeks. We still expect a rising US dollar over the coming year or so; however, the currency is entering the final phase of the strong-dollar cycle and investors should be aware that valuations and historical cycles suggest […]

March 2017

Is the United States Set for a Spike in Inflation?

Answers to our clients’ questions about market action and the market environment in a few paragraphs every two weeks. We doubt it. But, price levels are likely to rise gradually in the months ahead, as the rebound in energy commodities continues to impact measurements. Recent inflation data releases have raised concerns about a potential spike, […]

March 2017