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We see opportunities to deploy capital in some niche areas of the investment landscape and reshape (or at least re-evaluate) some areas of the portfolio. Simultaneously, we are closely monitoring the lurch toward protectionist trade policies and their impact on global economic activity.
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Fish, but only if investors can accept very lumpy returns.
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No, we don’t think so. While euro area economic activity has weakened meaningfully, with real GDP growth falling to its lowest annual pace (1.1%) since 2013 in third quarter, strong equity returns aren’t dependent on robust economic growth. Ultimately, we continue to like the bloc as part of a risk-controlled overweight to global ex US equities funded from US equities.
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Yes. Economic growth is slowing, and governments have limited monetary and fiscal policy responses available in the event this slowdown becomes a recession. Today, investors need to weigh the investment implications of likely policy options.
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Answers to our clients’ questions about market action and the market environment in a few paragraphs every two weeks. No. But, the game has changed and to be successful, investors should adopt a new commitment strategy. While the industry faces secular challenges, managers can innovate to exploit disruption and generate attractive absolute returns. Private equity…
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No, sterling-based investors should not change their currency hedge ratios or their allocations to sterling-denominated assets based on potential Brexit outcomes.
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Yes, maintaining a well-hedged pension plan is prudent risk management.
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No, we do not think Federal Reserve rate cuts signal a major downturn in the US dollar.
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No. While US companies have some defensible profitability advantages, today’s elevated margin levels may be poised for a reversal of fortune.
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Yes. While equity and bond markets don’t often rise in tandem like they have lately, history suggests that both recent moves could be warranted if central bank stimulus successfully extends the cycle. But that is a big “if”; several moving parts cloud the macro outlook, and markets are assuming that central banks can reverse the recent economic slowdown.
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