Does a Dovish Fed Doom the US Dollar?
No, we do not think Federal Reserve rate cuts signal a major downturn in the US dollar.
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Profit Margins for US Companies Are Very Strong; Are They Sustainable?
No. While US companies have some defensible profitability advantages, today’s elevated margin levels may be poised for a reversal of fortune.
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Could the Equity and Bond Markets Both be Right About the Macro Outlook?
Yes. While equity and bond markets don’t often rise in tandem like they have lately, history suggests that both recent moves could be warranted if central bank stimulus successfully extends the cycle. But that is a big “if”; several moving parts cloud the macro outlook, and markets are assuming that central banks can reverse the recent economic slowdown.
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Does an Extended US-China Trade War Change the Strategic Investment Case for China?
No. While we do not expect the trade war to end after President Trump and President Xi meet this week at the G20 in Japan, we have not changed our view that investors should consider dedicated allocations to China broadly and A-shares in particular.
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Has the US-China Trade War Ensnarled the Euro Area?
The seemingly ever-expanding US-China trade war has undercut economic activity in the euro area, challenging earnings expectations and the bloc’s currency.
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Are Private Equity Mega Funds in a Category by Themselves?
Mega funds are indeed in a category by themselves, namely that of a new public markets proxy.
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Given Prolonged US Equity Market Dominance, Should Investors Reconsider Existing Overweights to Global ex US Stocks?
No, we believe investors should maintain a modest tilt away from US equities and toward global ex US stocks.
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Should Investors Allocate to Public or Private Chinese Investments?
Public and private Chinese equities both present attractive investment opportunities today.
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The US Yield Curve Inverted! Should Investors Underweight Risk?
Although an inverted yield curve is not a sign we welcome, it also is not a clear indicator of an imminent equity market downturn. Instead of underweighting risky assets, we suggest investors take this opportunity to refresh plans to manage through the next bear market.
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With Brexit Stress Peaking, Should Investors Tactically Increase Exposure to UK Equities?
No, we don’t believe the politics of Brexit are conducive to tactical asset allocation.
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