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We do not expect a rerun of the 2000s for tech and venture capital. The similarities between the late 1990s and today are concerning, but the differences are even more sweeping.
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Investors should expect more volatility in 2019, as many of the trends and political dynamics that have rattled confidence over the last few months seem unlikely to dissipate in the months ahead.
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Yes. At a minimum, investors should consciously consider it. The co-investment “craze” isn’t going away anytime soon—we estimate co-investing currently accounts for nearly one-third of all private investment activity—and there are structural reasons why it will continue, as we will discuss.
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Last month’s sell-off was mainly a reaction to macroeconomic headwinds that have been building this year; recent and expected corporate earnings growth has not weakened much.
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Yes, if you control for tech overweights. Quality has historically been quite defensive relative to the broad market. Today, it is sensible to question quality’s defensive characteristics, as the factor is concentrated in tech stocks and has become quite expensive.
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Although crude oil prices above $100 a barrel will pinch consumer pockets, investor anxiety on this topic is both premature and exaggerated.
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No, investors should consider staying the course. Though developments and headlines associated with the United Kingdom’s Article 50 negotiations with the European Union have been and likely will remain fitful, they reflect more the political nature of the process and less the underlying fundamentals of the economy and its listed equities.
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Yes, but investors should be selective in allocating to credit markets at this point in the cycle, and understand that the overvaluation of many credit assets could make attractive returns hard to come by.
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Solid fundamentals in most countries should limit the damage. The largest markets are not particularly exposed to the risk of a classic balance-of-payments crisis (like the ones occurring today in a handful of smaller markets, including Turkey and Argentina).
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We don’t believe so. US small caps have benefited from cyclical tailwinds this year, including strengthening US growth and their more domestic orientation (helpful as the dollar strengthens and trade frictions increase), with small-cap earnings estimated to grow twice as fast as large-cap earnings in 2018.
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