Will the Yen Continue to Support Japanese Equities?

No. The Japanese yen has been on a weakening trend for several years. For most of that time, it has been a lynchpin of Japanese equity outperformance in local currency terms. We believe there is limited further downside for the yen, which, while removing a headwind for USD returns, also removes the main pillar of […]

May 2024

Should Investors Chase the Bitcoin and Gold Rallies?

No. While recent developments may be a sign that bitcoin is gaining credibility, it remains a highly speculative investment that offers no cash flows. Gold—a more stable and defensive option than bitcoin—also offers no yield. Investors looking for portfolio defense should look to long US Treasury securities, which offer reasonable yields and protection in a […]

March 2024

SEC Approves Spot Bitcoin ETFs

On January 10, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the trading of spot bitcoin ETFs, roughly ten years after the first application. The approval follows last year’s decision by a US Appeals Court that limited the SEC’s discretion in denying applications. While we doubt this decision will meaningfully impact sophisticated investors in the […]

January 2024

2024 Outlook: Currencies

We expect the US dollar and gold will more or less hold their values, given our economic expectation and the many geopolitical risks. We believe the yen will appreciate, and we expect the thawing crypto winter will fully transition to a spring. The US Dollar and Gold Should Hold Their Value in 2024 Sean Duffin, […]

December 2023

Key Central Bank Policy Rates Approach Cyclical Peak

Over the past two weeks, central banks in the United States, United Kingdom, euro area, and Japan have all held monetary policy meetings. The communications following these meetings retained a hawkish bias, suggesting further policy tightening may be necessary—except for the Bank of Japan (BOJ)—however, additional interest rate hikes will likely be much less frequent […]

September 2023

Do Recent Central Bank Meetings Alter Our US Dollar Outlook?

No, we expect that while the US dollar should decline from its current elevated level over the medium term, there are factors that will continue to provide it with support in the short term. If our expectations are met, later this year or early next year should be an opportune time to consider positioning portfolios […]

May 2023

Is the Crypto Winter Over?

No, it’s not over, but the worst of it is past us. After the liquid token market’s remarkable January, some called an early spring. To be sure, January’s returns were extraordinary, with bitcoin up 39%. However, token prices are only back to levels seen prior to FTX’s collapse in November and the industry is still […]

February 2023

2023 Outlook: Currencies

We expect the US dollar to remain firm but with limited appreciation relative to 2022, given our view that it is near the end of its incredible multi-year run. We believe gold’s performance will improve and digital assets, in general, will not surpass prior highs, many of which were set in 2021. 2023 Will Not […]

December 2022