Insights

Stress and Losses Among Middle-Market Senior and Unitranche Loans: Introducing Cambridge Associates' New Database

As part of our ongoing commitment to alternative credit, Cambridge Associates (CA) began compiling a database of credit stress and losses in one of the largest strategies within private credit, senior debt (i.e., direct lending). Our initial outreach in the United States and Europe yielded data from 11 senior debt funds tracking material document modifications (which we use as a proxy for credit stress, greater detail below) and loss rates in bilateral and clubbed middle-market lending.

July 2019

Could the Equity and Bond Markets Both be Right About the Macro Outlook?

Yes. While equity and bond markets don’t often rise in tandem like they have lately, history suggests that both recent moves could be warranted if central bank stimulus successfully extends the cycle. But that is a big “if”; several moving parts cloud the macro outlook, and markets are assuming that central banks can reverse the recent economic slowdown.

July 2019

Does an Extended US-China Trade War Change the Strategic Investment Case for China?

No. While we do not expect the trade war to end after President Trump and President Xi meet this week at the G20 in Japan, we have not changed our view that investors should consider dedicated allocations to China broadly and A-shares in particular.

June 2019

Has the US-China Trade War Ensnarled the Euro Area?

The seemingly ever-expanding US-China trade war has undercut economic activity in the euro area, challenging earnings expectations and the bloc’s currency.

June 2019

Are Private Equity Mega Funds in a Category by Themselves?

Mega funds are indeed in a category by themselves, namely that of a new public markets proxy.

May 2019

Given Prolonged US Equity Market Dominance, Should Investors Reconsider Existing Overweights to Global ex US Stocks?

No, we believe investors should maintain a modest tilt away from US equities and toward global ex US stocks.

May 2019

Should Investors Allocate to Public or Private Chinese Investments?

Public and private Chinese equities both present attractive investment opportunities today.

May 2019

VantagePoint: Second Quarter 2019

We recently argued that investors should take a systematic and comprehensive approach to investing in China, overweighting Chinese assets relative to their index weights. This edition of VantagePoint addresses five key questions regarding implementation decisions.

April 2019