No, we don’t think so. While euro area economic activity has weakened meaningfully, with real GDP growth falling to its lowest annual pace (1.1%) since 2013 in third quarter, strong equity returns aren’t dependent on robust economic growth. Ultimately, we continue to like the bloc as part of a risk-controlled overweight to global ex US equities funded from US equities.
December 2019
No. While US companies have some defensible profitability advantages, today’s elevated margin levels may be poised for a reversal of fortune.
July 2019
No, we believe investors should maintain a modest tilt away from US equities and toward global ex US stocks.
May 2019
Yes, but only if you can tolerate the volatility. Chinese A-shares have surged in 2019, rising nearly 23% as of March 8. In 2018, A-shares’ -29% return was one of the worst among major markets, but renewed optimism this year over US-China trade negotiations sparked the sharp rebound.
March 2019
Investors shouldn't sweat the recent downgrades to global earnings forecasts. Although analysts have cut their expectations substantially since September, they still expect most regions to grow in the mid-single digits in 2019.
February 2019
Yes, if you control for tech overweights. Quality has historically been quite defensive relative to the broad market. Today, it is sensible to question quality’s defensive characteristics, as the factor is concentrated in tech stocks and has become quite expensive.
October 2018
No, investors should consider staying the course. Though developments and headlines associated with the United Kingdom’s Article 50 negotiations with the European Union have been and likely will remain fitful, they reflect more the political nature of the process and less the underlying fundamentals of the economy and its listed equities.
August 2018
Solid fundamentals in most countries should limit the damage. The largest markets are not particularly exposed to the risk of a classic balance-of-payments crisis (like the ones occurring today in a handful of smaller markets, including Turkey and Argentina).
July 2018