Portfolio management for families of significant wealth is distinctly different than for institutions, or those with traditional wealth management needs. For these families, the wealth typically exists in a much more complex ecosystem—among real estate investments, operating companies, or multiple generations, by way of example. These factors should have a meaningful impact on investment strategy, […]
June 2022
Yes, we think corporate earnings expectations are likely too high. This is because earnings are well above the long-term trend, and we expect inflation and higher policy rates will put downward pressure on profits margins. After growing by more than 50% in 2021, global corporate earnings are significantly higher than the long-term trend. However, nominal […]
June 2022
Credit assets have sold off in recent weeks in unison with other risk assets, as market concern has shifted from one extreme of growth and inflation running too hot to another of stagflation, or even outright recession. Despite the improvement in credit pricing, we believe investors should be patient when adding to high-beta credit portfolios. […]
May 2022
Yes. We do expect venture capital (VC) returns to be negatively impacted in the coming quarters but doubt that impact will be as pronounced and wholesale as it was during the dot-com era. To this day, the US VC 1999 vintage year fund cohort still reports an overall negative internal rate of return and has yet to return […]
May 2022
As entrepreneurs know well, the process of creating and managing a successful business is complex and requires great skill, insight, and hard work. Successful management of significant wealth requires similar attributes; however, not all the characteristics fundamental to entrepreneurial success translate to effective portfolio management. This can create challenges for entrepreneurs—whether they are still actively […]
May 2022
Yes, although such investments are not for the faint of heart. As we have seen in 2022, both stocks and bonds have lost value as inflation expectations have escalated. The current environment favors building robustness into portfolios, and exposure to commodities—in addition to high quality bonds—could be a part of this, particularly for investors whose […]
May 2022
Global inflation has been higher and more persistent than most economists anticipated. Some inflationary pressures related to the pandemic have started to show signs of easing, but new pressures related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and lockdowns associated with China’s “zero-COVID” policy create new challenges. At the same time, central banks have declared war on […]
May 2022
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced it would raise the target range for the Fed funds rate 50 basis points (bps) to 0.75%–1.00%. It also formalized plans to reduce its $9 trillion balance sheet starting June 1, with an initial monthly cap of $47.5 billion, rising to $95 billion per month on September 1. At that […]
May 2022