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The End of the Fed's Tightening Cycle Nears

Today, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds target range by 25 basis points (bps), to 4.75%–5.00%, as expected, and signaled it expects at least another 25 bps of additional rate hikes will be necessary to bring down inflation. This announcement and the recent turmoil in the banking sector increase our confidence that the Fed […]

March 2023

Has Our Broad Investment Outlook Changed Considering the Recent Bank Collapses?

No. We continue to think investors should tightly manage risk by keeping equity allocations and bond duration in line with broad policy targets and resist the temptation to time the market. We entered the year with those views, which depended on our expectation that recessions in the United States and euro area were likely, given […]

March 2023

Regulators Seek to Contain SVB Fallout

Following no US bank failures in the last two years, two banks failed in the last three days—Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank. As the situation evolved last week, investors, businesses, and regulators became increasingly concerned about SVB and risks to the broader economy. Over the weekend, US officials from the Federal Reserve, Treasury, […]

March 2023

Will the Outperformance of Eurozone Equities Persist?

No, while the recent outperformance and positivity surrounding Eurozone equities was justified by shifts in the macroeconomic landscape, we do not have confidence that outperformance will continue, given the challenges still facing the region. Therefore, we suggest investors keep Eurozone equity allocations in line with policy weights. Since their recent relative low point at the […]

March 2023

Is the Crypto Winter Over?

No, it’s not over, but the worst of it is past us. After the liquid token market’s remarkable January, some called an early spring. To be sure, January’s returns were extraordinary, with bitcoin up 39%. However, token prices are only back to levels seen prior to FTX’s collapse in November and the industry is still […]

February 2023

VantagePoint: Too Much Optimism Amid Uncertainty

What a difference a couple of months makes. Economic conditions have improved since year-end 2022 due to the heady brew of China lifting its zero-COVID policy, Europe navigating its energy crisis better than anticipated, and cooling inflation in the United States. In early February, an exceptionally strong US labor report and a sharp rebound in […]

February 2023

ASEAN Equities: Surprising to the Upside

Southeast Asia, also known as ASEAN (The Association of Southeast Asian Nations), was a relative safe haven for investors in 2022. In local currency terms, ASEAN equities returned -0.1% in 2022, outperforming Asia ex Japan (AxJ) and developed markets (DM) equities, which were down more than 15%. While ASEAN currencies have been under pressure, the […]

February 2023

Is January's US Small-Cap Equity Performance Sustainable?

Yes, we expect US small-cap equities will outperform US large-cap equities this year. Our view is based on the belief that the large valuation spread that exists will likely narrow and that large company earnings are likely more at risk of missing expectations than small company earnings. To overweight small-cap equities, we recommend funding it from […]

February 2023

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