How Should Investors Alter Portfolios Considering the War in Ukraine?

Thoughtfully, if at all. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves across the world, creating a tragic humanitarian and geopolitical crisis, and introducing new uncertainty to the global economy and financial markets. The lynchpin to understanding how assets may perform in the coming days and weeks is, of course, knowing the duration of the war and […]

March 2022

Do Significant Geopolitical Events Tend to Precede Equity Bear Markets?

No. Global equities tend to sell off following major geopolitical events, but such declines have historically been mild and short-lived, far below the 20% drawdown threshold that is typically considered a bear market. We view this historical tendency as a useful, but imperfect, benchmark in thinking about the impact of the current Russia-Ukraine crisis on […]

February 2022

Will Concerns Over "Greenflation" Derail the Energy Transition?

No. The inflation attributed to green initiatives (known as “greenflation”) is part of the current inflation narrative, but we doubt concerns related to it will derail the global energy transition. Net zero pledges and related policy frameworks have been rolled out in nearly 200 countries, underpinning a transition already underway due to climate change and […]

February 2022

VantagePoint: Jumpstarting the Energy Transition

This year may prove to be pivotal in the transition from fossil fuels to renewables. Policy makers, businesses, and investors are accelerating commitments to bring greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to net zero by 2050. The aim is consistent with the 2015 Paris Agreement to “limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, compared […]

February 2022

Outlook 2022: Flying at a Lower Altitude

As we peer over the horizon, we anticipate growth will return to a lower altitude. Read more in our compilation of investment views for 2022.

December 2021

Inflationary Pressures Will Moderate Some in Second Half

Consumer price inflation is above pre-pandemic trend in the United States and Europe, while producer prices are surging seemingly everywhere. Consistent with consensus forecasts, we expect mounting inflation pressures to ease by second half 2022 as demand for goods abates and supply constraints moderate.

December 2021

Overestimating Liquidity Needs Can Undercut the Return Potential of US Pension Plans

Many defined benefit plans sponsors may be denying themselves valuable opportunities to generate additional returns by overestimating their liquidity needs. Targeting a liquidity supply/demand ratio of 2x–3x can help portfolios tolerate periods of market stress.

November 2021

Investing for Climate Justice: An Intersectional Approach

Climate change and social inequality are two material and systemic risks facing the global economy and investment portfolios over the coming decades. In this paper, we demonstrate the relationship between climate change and social justice, highlight how investors can implement an intersectional approach to climate justice in their portfolios, and outline three steps investors should consider to help ensure our transition to a low-carbon economy is inclusive and just.

October 2021