We don’t think so. Investors with diversified portfolios already have some cushion if equities sell off given holdings like fixed income, hedge funds, and other diversifying assets. Further, trying to time the market by buying derivatives or substantially reducing equity exposure is rife with behavioral risks that could see investors ceasing to purchase protection just […]
April 2017
This quarter’s edition discusses the reflationary environment, positioning in global equities, prospects for sovereign bonds (both nominal and inflation-linked), and USD strength. We also profile two strategies that can diversify portfolios without dependence on economic growth: life settlements and pharmaceutical royalties.
April 2017
No. If the interest expense deduction is eliminated, debt issuance may drop slightly, but the demand for senior and mezzanine debt will be little changed, and the risk/reward proposition is still attractive for investors. Under the new tax regime outlined in the GOP’s Tax Reform Task Force’s Better Way “blueprint,” the highest corporate tax rate […]
March 2017
We still expect a rising US dollar over the coming year or so; however, the currency is entering the final phase of the strong-dollar cycle and investors should be aware that valuations and historical cycles suggest USD weakness over the coming decade. After weakening for most of 2016, the US dollar sprang back to life […]
March 2017
We doubt it. But, price levels are likely to rise gradually in the months ahead, as the rebound in energy commodities continues to impact measurements. Recent inflation data releases have raised concerns about a potential spike, with headlines warning that the consumer price index (CPI) posted its largest monthly gain in four years. Concerns appear […]
March 2017
Some of the reflation trades that received a boost from the US election (such as the stronger US dollar and higher US bond yields) look to be merely taking a breather as investors square positions; however, the fundamental support for others—particularly the outperformance of US small-cap equities—is challenged. The US election was not the only […]
February 2017
The start of the year is always a good time to focus on personal improvements with resolutions. In this edition of VantagePoint, we share in the spirit of a new year by providing investment resolutions.
January 2017
Simple is not so sweet in the current environment. In a world of global uncertainty, investors should place a premium on diversification. The siren song of the simple portfolio may be difficult to resist, but its appeal is based on recent performance that is unlikely to be repeated over the next decade. Prospective long-term returns […]
January 2017