We believe now is an opportune time to allocate to direct lending. Dislocation in the public leveraged finance markets has allowed direct lenders to increase credit spreads and tighten terms. This, coupled with higher interest rates, means that first-lien senior-secured debt is now yielding low double digits. Recent turmoil in the banking sector may only […]
March 2023
On 20 March, investors awoke to news Swiss authorities had used emergency measures to push through a hastily arranged merger of Credit Suisse and UBS. Following two recent bank failures in the United States, the announcement raised questions over the health of European banks and the broader economy. While market pressure on another European financial […]
March 2023
Today, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds target range by 25 basis points (bps), to 4.75%–5.00%, as expected, and signaled it expects at least another 25 bps of additional rate hikes will be necessary to bring down inflation. This announcement and the recent turmoil in the banking sector increase our confidence that the Fed […]
March 2023
No. We continue to think investors should tightly manage risk by keeping equity allocations and bond duration in line with broad policy targets and resist the temptation to time the market. We entered the year with those views, which depended on our expectation that recessions in the United States and euro area were likely, given […]
March 2023
Following no US bank failures in the last two years, two banks failed in the last three days—Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank. As the situation evolved last week, investors, businesses, and regulators became increasingly concerned about SVB and risks to the broader economy. Over the weekend, US officials from the Federal Reserve, Treasury, […]
March 2023
No, while the recent outperformance and positivity surrounding Eurozone equities was justified by shifts in the macroeconomic landscape, we do not have confidence that outperformance will continue, given the challenges still facing the region. Therefore, we suggest investors keep Eurozone equity allocations in line with policy weights. Since their recent relative low point at the […]
March 2023
No, it’s not over, but the worst of it is past us. After the liquid token market’s remarkable January, some called an early spring. To be sure, January’s returns were extraordinary, with bitcoin up 39%. However, token prices are only back to levels seen prior to FTX’s collapse in November and the industry is still […]
February 2023
What a difference a couple of months makes. Economic conditions have improved since year-end 2022 due to the heady brew of China lifting its zero-COVID policy, Europe navigating its energy crisis better than anticipated, and cooling inflation in the United States. In early February, an exceptionally strong US labor report and a sharp rebound in […]
February 2023