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In an Environment of Declining Demographics and Slow Productivity Growth, What Investments Look Attractive?

Investments with the potential to earn returns competitive with equities—without a dependence on economic growth—are especially valuable diversifiers for portfolios. Such investments are varied, sometimes niche, and require skilled implementation. Many require some illiquidity, but may compensate by distributing income. Headline risk is also often a major consideration, so such investments are not for everyone. […]

May 2017

Maintaining Strategic Direction through Peaks and Valleys

An extended bull market can tempt even the savviest investors into abandoning their long-term discipline. Resisting the impulse to switch horses in the middle of the race is hard, but necessary—the most important trait of successful investors is their ability to maintain discipline in sticking to a long-term strategy during good times and bad. Diversified portfolios—structured to earn returns comparable to their rate of spending at tolerable levels of risk—have benefitted long-term investors and grown their purchasing power for decades, and we have no reason to expect a different outcome when today’s bull market inevitably corrects.

April 2017

VantagePoint: Second Quarter 2017

This quarter’s edition discusses the reflationary environment, positioning in global equities, prospects for sovereign bonds (both nominal and inflation-linked), and USD strength. We also profile two strategies that can diversify portfolios without dependence on economic growth: life settlements and pharmaceutical royalties.

April 2017

Is the United States Set for a Spike in Inflation?

We doubt it. But, price levels are likely to rise gradually in the months ahead, as the rebound in energy commodities continues to impact measurements. Recent inflation data releases have raised concerns about a potential spike, with headlines warning that the consumer price index (CPI) posted its largest monthly gain in four years. Concerns appear […]

March 2017

Are “Reflation Trades” Reversing or Just Pausing?

Some of the reflation trades that received a boost from the US election (such as the stronger US dollar and higher US bond yields) look to be merely taking a breather as investors square positions; however, the fundamental support for others—particularly the outperformance of US small-cap equities—is challenged. The US election was not the only […]

February 2017

Mission-Related Investing: Current Practices and Views of Non-Profit Investors

Investor approaches to mission-related investing (MRI) are as varied as the social and environmental outcomes they seek to achieve. This survey report explores trends in the structure and implementation of MRI programs, investor motivations and perceived challenges, and expectations for future growth in MRI investment activity, based on responses from 159 non-profit clients, 50 of which are actively making mission-related investments.

February 2017

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