Emerging markets (EM) economies were among the hardest hit as part of US President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariff announcement. This was because EM countries tend to run trade surpluses with the United States and the administration’s tariff methodology ostensibly focused on bilateral trade deficits. While trade negotiations may ultimately result in a less draconian […]
May 2025
No, we don’t think so. Gold has benefited from concerns about economic growth, inflation, and waning confidence in the US dollar, creating a perfect storm for bullish sentiment. While these factors could continue to support gold in the short term, the current momentum appears unsustainable. Gold’s recent climb to an all-time inflation-adjusted high increases the […]
April 2025
After a prolonged period of US outperformance, many investment portfolios have become heavily concentrated in US equities, particularly tech stocks. They are also significantly exposed to the US dollar across public, private, and alternative assets. Recent policy shifts now challenge US economic and financial hegemony, increasing the risk to equity and currency outperformance. Investors should […]
April 2025
No. Following President Donald Trump’s announcement about reciprocal tariffs on April 2, credit spreads have widened for US high-yield (HY) bonds and broadly syndicated loans, prompting some investors to ask whether it’s an opportune time to add exposure to these assets. We believe it is too early. Spreads for most assets are merely back to […]
April 2025
With events unfolding daily (even moment to moment), it is not yet clear how the nearly $2 trillion of assets in the private equity and venture capital market will be impacted. However, given the diversity and breadth of industries across the private markets, it is clear that the impact won’t be uniform. Private company valuations […]
April 2025
The complexities of ever-changing markets present both challenges and opportunities for compounding wealth over time. Amid significant market volatility, investors should stay focused on sticking with their long-term strategy while looking for opportunities as they evolve. Shifting geopolitical alignments, the prospect of persistently high tariffs, rising sovereign debt in developed markets, and the end of […]
April 2025
No, we do not think the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the near term to rescue financial markets. However, if tariffs begin to significantly impact the real economy, the Fed will eventually act. The Fed faces a delicate balancing act: managing downside growth risks while addressing inflation pressures from tariffs. This dynamic will make […]
April 2025
Global equities tumbled nearly 8% last week following the announcement of US tariffs on April 2, with the rout continuing into Monday, April 7. Key Asian markets have declined 3%–13% on Monday, partly reflecting the delayed reaction from markets that were closed on Friday, while US and European markets experienced wild swings after opening sharply […]
April 2025