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Is China’s Economy Stalling?

No. Economic growth in China is likely to reach 5% this year, which is in line with government targets and consensus forecasts. Following a stronger-than-expected first quarter, recent economic data has softened, disappointing investor expectations of a sharper recovery after last year’s COVID-19 lockdown, but the Chinese economy is not on the verge of relapsing […]

June 2023

US Debt Ceiling Deal to Weigh Modestly on Already Weak Economic Growth Outlook

Over the weekend, US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy finalized an agreement in principle to suspend the US debt ceiling through January 1, 2025. The deal is expected to be approved by Congress before June 5—the date Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expects the United States to run out of cash. The agreement […]

May 2023

Should Investors Alter Portfolios in Response to Debt Ceiling Risks?

No. We think most investors should not alter portfolios based solely on debt ceiling risks. Instead, they should remain focused on the long term and rely on the diversification in their existing portfolios. But given the potential for additional stress in funding markets, investors should ensure they have ample liquidity to meet upcoming capital calls […]

May 2023

Buying India's Growth Story, But Not Today

India has garnered significant investor attention, given its recent economic and stock market outperformance, its large and growing population, and its rapid ascent as a manufacturing alternative to China. But should investors buy the hype surrounding Indian equities? We think India’s bright economic prospects have the potential to drive strong equity market returns in the […]

May 2023

VantagePoint: Banking Crisis Implications for Asset Allocation

More than a month has passed since Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank failed, kicking off ripples of concerns across much of the globe. To look at the performance of risk assets, you would never know what transpired, with global equities returning 2.4% during March and 7% in the first quarter in local currency […]

April 2023

Asia Insights: Navigating Higher Rates and Volatility

Introduction Aaron Costello, Regional Head for Asia, and Vivian Gan, Associate Investment Director, Capital Markets Research The path of global central bank tightening remains a top-of-mind question for investors after the recent stress in the US and European banking sectors. While financial contagion seems contained for now and has yet to spread to Asia, the […]

April 2023

Investors Should Direct Their Attention to Private Lending

We believe now is an opportune time to allocate to direct lending. Dislocation in the public leveraged finance markets has allowed direct lenders to increase credit spreads and tighten terms. This, coupled with higher interest rates, means that first-lien senior-secured debt is now yielding low double digits. Recent turmoil in the banking sector may only […]

March 2023

The End of the Fed's Tightening Cycle Nears

Today, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds target range by 25 basis points (bps), to 4.75%–5.00%, as expected, and signaled it expects at least another 25 bps of additional rate hikes will be necessary to bring down inflation. This announcement and the recent turmoil in the banking sector increase our confidence that the Fed […]

March 2023

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