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Insights

2024 Outlook: Interest Rates

We expect that most major central banks will cut policy rates modestly due to our view that inflation rates will continue to decline. The modest cuts will shift policy rates from restrictive levels closer to neutral levels, which are neither restrictive nor accommodative. Given this view and our view that economic activity will weaken, we […]

December 2023

2024 Outlook: Private Equity & Venture Capital

We expect US venture capital down rounds will increase, even as artificial intelligence continues to serve as a major catalyst within the market. We believe flows to European turnaround and value strategies will increase and flows to China private investments will remain muted. We expect secondary transaction volume will increase to a record level. Down […]

December 2023

2024 Outlook: Credit

We expect direct lending and European opportunistic private credit funds will outperform their long-term averages because of high asset yields and the pull back in credit availability among traditional lenders. We like structured credits, particularly high-quality collateralized loan obligation debt, and we expect high-yield bonds will outperform leveraged loans. But we remain neutral on high […]

December 2023

2024 Outlook: Hedge Funds

We expect equity long/short strategies will outperform their long-term average, due partly to the considerable rise in short rebates. This expectation is also linked to our view that global equity volatility will increase due to our economic expectation and ongoing geopolitical crises. Equity Long/Short Performance Should Be Above Average in 2024 Joe Marenda, Head of […]

December 2023

2024 Outlook: Real Assets

We expect REIT and public infrastructure performances will improve, given undemanding valuations and our view on interest rates. We believe private infrastructure funds will perform well, and we think nuclear energy will emerge as a small but important opportunity. US REIT Performance Should Rebound in 2024 Sehr Dsani, Investment Director, Capital Markets Research, and Marc […]

December 2023

2024 Outlook: Currencies

We expect the US dollar and gold will more or less hold their values, given our economic expectation and the many geopolitical risks. We believe the yen will appreciate, and we expect the thawing crypto winter will fully transition to a spring. The US Dollar and Gold Should Hold Their Value in 2024 Sean Duffin, […]

December 2023

2024 Outlook: Sustainability & Impact

We expect more companies will set science-based targets to reduce their emissions and develop credible transition plans to meet their targets. We believe funds raised by natural capital strategies will hit a new record and that California carbon allowances will outperform global equities. 2024 Should Be the Year of the “Transition Plan” Simon Hallett, Head […]

December 2023

Is All Growth Investing “Growth Equity”?

No. In recent years, many private investment fund managers (GPs) have painted themselves with a growth equity brush. Limited partners (LPs) need to be increasingly diligent to determine if they are accessing the truly differentiated and attractive investment profile offered by actual growth equity. Back in 2013, we shared our definition of growth equity as […]

December 2023