VantagePoint: Electrifying Returns in the AI Era

Artificial intelligence (AI) is not just transforming business models and economic growth—it is contributing to a step change in global electricity demand, with far-reaching effects on energy markets, utility infrastructure, and investment portfolios. This shift is creating both acute challenges and compelling opportunities. Grid reliability, infrastructure bottlenecks, and decarbonization pressures are intensifying, while the scale […]

November 2025

A US-China Trade Deal Would Show Desire for Gradual Strategic De-risking, Not Abrupt Decoupling

Global markets rallied on October 26 following news that the United States and China have reached a “preliminary consensus” on several key issues. This development sets the stage for Presidents Trump and Xi to meet on October 30 in Korea, on the sidelines of the APEC leaders’ summit. Although a formal agreement has not yet […]

October 2025

Long Bond Performance Does Not Signify an Impending Debt Crisis

Long-dated government bonds have come under pressure in recent months, at least on a relative basis. Sections of the financial media have interpreted this as evidence of an impending fiscal crisis and a resurgence of so-called bond market vigilantes seeking to impose fiscal discipline on governments. In this research note, we aim to separate signal […]

October 2025

Building Resilient Portfolios: Liquid Diversifiers for Today’s Institutional Challenges

What does it take to build a resilient portfolio in a world where market shocks, regulatory shifts, and geopolitical tensions are the new normal? For many institutions—such as Defined Benefit plans, Insurance organizations, Nuclear Decommissioning Trusts, and others—the challenge is twofold: achieving viable diversification and ensuring sufficient liquidity to rebalance portfolios and meet disbursement requirements. […]

October 2025

Weathering the Latest US Government Shutdown

The US federal government shut down overnight after the Senate failed to reach an agreement on funding government operations before the September 30 deadline. During a shutdown, “non-essential” federal agencies and programs that rely on annual discretionary appropriations must cease operations until funding is restored. Historically, shutdowns have been short-lived—averaging eight days—and have had negligible […]

October 2025

Should Investors Increase Core Real Estate Allocations Now That the Fed Has Resumed Easing?

No. Despite last week’s rate cut, we do not recommend that most investors increase their core real estate exposure. Although real estate assets should benefit from renewed Federal Reserve easing—which would lower debt costs and improve relative yields—valuations remain elevated and sector-specific challenges remain. While neutral on broad core real estate exposures at this time, […]

September 2025

Is the Projected Path of Fed Easing Too Aggressive?

Yes. Current market expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower its policy rate by roughly 150 basis points (bps) by the end of next year are overly optimistic. While we expect a 25-bp cut on September 17, we believe additional cuts through 2026 will be more gradual than markets anticipate, given persistent inflation and a […]

September 2025

Is the Outperformance of DM ex US Small Caps a Lasting Trend?

Yes. In our view, developed markets (DM) ex US small-cap stocks are well positioned to continue outpacing their larger-cap counterparts. We expect this trend to persist due to three key factors: reduced sensitivity to global tariff changes, attractive relative valuations, and improving international economic fundamentals—including supportive policy and currency trends. For investors seeking to capitalize […]

September 2025