No, we don’t think so. There are parallels between today’s AI-related developments and the internet revolution of the late 1990s and early 2000s, as both eras involve profound technological change. Market concentration, increased capital investments, and valuation risks are among those parallels. However, the quality of companies today is higher and speculative excesses are less […]
February 2025
No. All three factors have weighed on euro area equity and currency markets to some extent in recent months. That has ranged from directly, by crimping economic activity; potentially dragging down future growth, by weighing on domestic economic confidence; or simply by denting the sentiment of fearful investors towards the region. However, a material degree […]
February 2025
No, we don’t think so. President Donald Trump made numerous campaign pledges, including additional corporate tax cuts and deregulation, which could be seen as beneficial for US large-cap stocks. On Inauguration Day, he acted on some of these pledges with a wave of executive orders, addressing topics from more lenient AI regulation to accelerating energy […]
January 2025
We expect developed markets (DM) value and small-cap equities to outperform, given our economic views and their steep valuation discounts. Regionally, we believe US equity performance will not match the level set in 2024, allowing European, Japanese, and emerging markets (EM) equities to perform more in line with broader developed markets. Within emerging markets, strong […]
December 2024
No, we do not expect Japanese mid-/large-cap equities to outperform their global peers despite some supportive factors, such as Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) reforms and inflows from security investment schemes. Japanese equities tend to underperform in global activity slowdowns and contractions, and current valuations do not offer sufficient compensation to bear that risk, given our […]
October 2024
Introduction Aaron Costello, Regional Head for Asia, and Vivian Gan, Associate Investment Director, Capital Markets Research With the global economy showing signs of cooling and Chinese economic momentum remaining weak, the outlook for Asian markets is increasingly mixed. Certain markets have been more resilient, such as India, where domestic growth is still robust, and Taiwan, […]
September 2024
Yes, investors should diversify in a risk-controlled manner, as mega-cap tech stocks have delivered exceptional fundamentals but are expensive and represent an outsized share of the equity markets. Investors should diversify concentration risk by leaning into more attractively valued segments of the market, namely developed markets small-cap and value stocks. Over the last 15 years, […]
September 2024
No, Federal Reserve rate cuts alone are unlikely to trigger sustained outperformance for Chinese equities. While the start of Fed rate cuts may help support the RMB and allow the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to modestly ease monetary policy, it is unlikely to reaccelerate China’s economy and ease current deflationary pressures, both of which […]
August 2024