We expect global equity performance will be below its long-term median level, but we believe investors should hold equity allocations in line with policy targets. Within equities, we see opportunities in developed value, developed small caps, and China. We doubt European and emerging markets ex China equities will outperform, and we believe the share of […]
December 2023
Yes, US-China geopolitical realities are already having an impact on trade and investment flows within Asia. China will remain an important destination for investor capital, but the shift in capital flows, alongside positive domestic structural developments in other parts of Asia, create investment opportunities beyond China that deserve a closer look. Trade and financial “decoupling” […]
November 2023
The shifting geopolitical realities between the United States and China have already impacted trade and investment flows. In this two-part series of VantagePoint, we review this reality and consider investment implications alongside those of other key factors—such as domestic structural developments, macroeconomic conditions, and valuations. In Part I, we focused on opportunities in China specifically. […]
November 2023
The shifting geopolitical realities between the United States and China have already impacted trade and investment flows. In this two-part series of VantagePoint, we review this reality and consider investment implications alongside those of other key factors—such as domestic structural developments, macroeconomic conditions, and valuations. In Part I, we focus on opportunities in China specifically, […]
October 2023
No. Although GDP revisions showing that the UK economy recovered more quickly and strongly from the COVID-19 period than was initially thought are welcome, the country faces headwinds to growth in the coming quarters. We continue to recommend holding UK equities at benchmark weights. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently released revisions to historical […]
September 2023
No, we do not think it is likely that Japanese equities can meaningfully outperform in the near term, given growing headwinds from the slowing global manufacturing cycle, possible monetary tightening, and potential Japanese yen (JPY) strength. Still, we do not think investors should be intentionally underweight, as Japan may continue to benefit from structural changes […]
August 2023
No. While the exciting developments in artificial intelligence (AI) have been a bright spot for equity markets this year, we do not think value will continue to lag growth. In fact, we expect it will outperform over the next several years. Growth indexes have already retraced nearly all of last year’s underperformance relative to value. […]
June 2023
Yes, investors should overweight US small-cap stocks, given valuations remain attractive and will provide a cushion if an expected recession unfolds. Banking sector turmoil and the sensitivity of more leveraged companies to higher interest rates have weighed on sentiment, but corporate fundamentals and balance sheets are starting at healthy levels. Investors fleeing to the presumed […]
May 2023