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In periods of market stress, it can be difficult to rebalance, much less overweight risky assets like equities. In this paper, we review our approach using multiple lenses: magnitude and duration of drawdowns relative to history, cheapness of valuations, and presence of pre-conditions for markets to begin their ascent. Such an approach can help investors tune out the emotion and dial in on the hard data and most probable outcomes even in the face of great uncertainty. While opportunities are developing across many markets, investors should hold off on broad overweights to risky assets at this time.

Introduction Aaron Costello, Regional Head for Asia, and Vivian Gan, Senior Investment Associate, Capital Markets Research Asian markets have had a difficult year so far due to headwinds from slowing global growth and higher inflation. Asian equities and yield-sensitive assets have sold off alongside their global counterparts amid heightened volatility and rising interest rates. Ongoing […]

No. Economic growth in China is likely to reach 5% this year, which is in line with government targets and consensus forecasts. Following a stronger-than-expected first quarter, recent economic data has softened, disappointing investor expectations of a sharper recovery after last year’s COVID-19 lockdown, but the Chinese economy is not on the verge of relapsing […]

No. We argue that after macro conditions helped propel the private investment industry to temporary heights, today’s environment has ushered in a “back to normal” era. Let’s back up a bit. In the COVID-19 period (defined as July 2020 through June 2022), all facets of the US private investment “ecosystem” were in overdrive. During that […]

April 8, 2020—The COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted significant duress upon the operational and financial situations of nonprofit healthcare systems. An immediate response was necessary to escalate staffing, spending, and resources to provide emergency treatment to those affected by this highly contagious outbreak.

Investors are now grappling with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has sent global equities into bear market territory as the threat of a severe recession weighs on the global economy. These are challenging, uncertain times for equity markets. As investors work to ensure their portfolios will be robust through this downturn and are positioned for the eventual rebound, we offer a review of the critical benefits of global equity diversification and examine considerations related to home bias, rebalancing strategies, and currency impacts.

Nominal high-quality sovereign bond yields throughout developed markets have plummeted toward zero, increasing the likelihood that most developed markets may soon need to contend with negative yields, and leading investors to question whether high-quality sovereign bonds are still the best form of insurance. In light of these developments, we examine the historical safe-haven characteristics of high-quality sovereign bonds and assesses whether they remain a viable safe-haven asset.

March 18, 2020—The bear has finally come out of his long hibernation, causing us to dust off our playbook for weathering bear markets.

Pensions face critical investment and management challenges as COVID-19 impacts capital markets. For single-employer plans, we have found that liquidity, rebalancing, implementation and communication are key issues to keep in mind.