Insights

Credit Investors Should Proceed Cautiously

Credit assets have sold off in recent weeks in unison with other risk assets, as market concern has shifted from one extreme of growth and inflation running too hot to another of stagflation, or even outright recession. Despite the improvement in credit pricing, we believe investors should be patient when adding to high-beta credit portfolios. […]

May 2022

Are Venture Returns About to Cycle?

Yes. We do expect venture capital (VC) returns to be negatively impacted in the coming quarters but doubt that impact will be as pronounced and wholesale as it was during the dot-com era. To this day, the US VC 1999 vintage year fund cohort still reports an overall negative internal rate of return and has yet to return […]

May 2022

While Great Entrepreneurs Leap, Great Investors Plan

As entrepreneurs know well, the process of creating and managing a successful business is complex and requires great skill, insight, and hard work. Successful management of significant wealth requires similar attributes; however, not all the characteristics fundamental to entrepreneurial success translate to effective portfolio management. This can create challenges for entrepreneurs—whether they are still actively […]

May 2022

Can Commodities Still Provide Shelter in the Storm as Both Stocks and Bonds Suffer Losses?

Yes, although such investments are not for the faint of heart. As we have seen in 2022, both stocks and bonds have lost value as inflation expectations have escalated. The current environment favors building robustness into portfolios, and exposure to commodities—in addition to high quality bonds—could be a part of this, particularly for investors whose […]

May 2022

VantagePoint: Resilience in a Time of Uncertainty

Global inflation has been higher and more persistent than most economists anticipated. Some inflationary pressures related to the pandemic have started to show signs of easing, but new pressures related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and lockdowns associated with China’s “zero-COVID” policy create new challenges. At the same time, central banks have declared war on […]

May 2022

Fed Raises Rates and Begins Balance Sheet Run-off

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced it would raise the target range for the Fed funds rate 50 basis points (bps) to 0.75%–1.00%. It also formalized plans to reduce its $9 trillion balance sheet starting June 1, with an initial monthly cap of $47.5 billion, rising to $95 billion per month on September 1. At that […]

May 2022

Charting New Waters: What Pension Plan Sponsors Should Know About Digital Assets

Pensions may be missing out on a technological disruption that could represent the most profound new development in the digital economy since its start in the late 1990s. To date, they have lagged other institutional investors in the digital assets space. Barring a few well-publicized exceptions, investments by pensions into digital assets on the blockchain […]

May 2022

Should Investors Go Long Duration Following This Year’s Sell-off in US Treasuries?

No, we do not recommend that investors go long duration in fixed income portfolios. The uncertain inflation outlook and potential for more aggressive policy tightening suggest yields could rise further. That said, we believe investors that are short duration in their fixed income portfolios should increase duration to match their benchmark, given the improved risk/reward […]

April 2022