Yes. Credit investors should be concerned about rising artificial intelligence (AI)-related debt issuance for several reasons. Credit spreads are near historic lows and are likely to face pressure from surging bond supply, of which AI-related investment is just one driver. Fundamentals look healthy for most so-called “hyperscalers,” but other companies may see a concerning rise […]
March 2026
Investors should maintain exposure to high-quality sovereigns and avoid duration bets in 2026 by TJ Scavone Yields on most major developed market (DM) sovereign bonds reached a multi-year high in 2023 and have since held just below those highs, trading in a relatively narrow range. We expect this pattern to persist into 2026, supported by […]
December 2025
No, the recent bankruptcies of First Brands Group and Tricolor do not signal systemic problems in private credit. Both cases are idiosyncratic, driven by fraud and unique business practices rather than broad market weakness. Importantly, the impact was felt across both private and traditional credit markets, not just private credit. Fundamentals in private credit remain […]
November 2025
Generative AI marks a pivotal moment in AI, with the 2022 public release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT as a major milestone. As discussed in Part 1 of this three-part series, AI is a transformative technology paradigm that will continue to evolve over the next decade and beyond. While significant investment has fueled rapid growth in AI […]
July 2025
No. Following President Donald Trump’s announcement about reciprocal tariffs on April 2, credit spreads have widened for US high-yield (HY) bonds and broadly syndicated loans, prompting some investors to ask whether it’s an opportune time to add exposure to these assets. We believe it is too early. Spreads for most assets are merely back to […]
April 2025
Specialty finance is an important subsector of the private credit asset class and is an area that investors should consider as they develop their allocations to private credit. It is an umbrella term that incorporates several niche strategies, with a common thread being lending to non-bank financial businesses backed by a pool of collateral. Because […]
January 2025
We expect liquid credit returns to decline due to low credit spreads and anticipated Fed easing. Direct lending returns should moderate but continue to outperform their liquid counterparts. Meanwhile, insurance-linked securities will continue to benefit from strong demand, and increased transaction volumes should support both specialty finance and credit opportunities managers. In emerging markets, currencies […]
December 2024
Introduction Aaron Costello, Regional Head for Asia, and Vivian Gan, Associate Investment Director, Capital Markets Research With the global economy showing signs of cooling and Chinese economic momentum remaining weak, the outlook for Asian markets is increasingly mixed. Certain markets have been more resilient, such as India, where domestic growth is still robust, and Taiwan, […]
September 2024