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Should Investors Underweight Emerging Markets Equities Today?

No. Emerging markets (EM) equities face a challenging macroeconomic environment, but many of the same issues are also plaguing their developed markets (DM) peers. We think EM allocations outside of China should be in line with policy, given that the risk of a widespread EM debt crisis is low, valuations relative to DM peers are […]

June 2022

Are Global Corporate Earnings Expectations Too Lofty?

Yes, we think corporate earnings expectations are likely too high. This is because earnings are well above the long-term trend, and we expect inflation and higher policy rates will put downward pressure on profits margins. After growing by more than 50% in 2021, global corporate earnings are significantly higher than the long-term trend. However, nominal […]

June 2022

Are Venture Returns About to Cycle?

Yes. We do expect venture capital (VC) returns to be negatively impacted in the coming quarters but doubt that impact will be as pronounced and wholesale as it was during the dot-com era. To this day, the US VC 1999 vintage year fund cohort still reports an overall negative internal rate of return and has yet to return […]

May 2022

Can Commodities Still Provide Shelter in the Storm as Both Stocks and Bonds Suffer Losses?

Yes, although such investments are not for the faint of heart. As we have seen in 2022, both stocks and bonds have lost value as inflation expectations have escalated. The current environment favors building robustness into portfolios, and exposure to commodities—in addition to high quality bonds—could be a part of this, particularly for investors whose […]

May 2022

Should Investors Go Long Duration Following This Year’s Sell-off in US Treasuries?

No, we do not recommend that investors go long duration in fixed income portfolios. The uncertain inflation outlook and potential for more aggressive policy tightening suggest yields could rise further. That said, we believe investors that are short duration in their fixed income portfolios should increase duration to match their benchmark, given the improved risk/reward […]

April 2022